Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 14, 5:00 PM PDT FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Oct 14, 4:32 PM PDT4/4 models favor Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, but the mean probability (53.88%) is below the house threshold.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: WKU 2-4 record edges Sam Houston 1-4
- Claude: DraftKings line WKU -1.5 implies roughly 53-56% win probability for Western Kentucky
- Gemini: Western Kentucky is favored by 1.5 points
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Western Kentucky as a 1.5-point favorite
Read all four model reports
Grok · Western Kentucky Hilltoppers · 53.0%
Western Kentucky holds a 2-4 record versus Sam Houston's 1-4. The DraftKings market line lists WKU as a 1.5-point road favorite at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium. No rankings are supplied for either team. These two comparative signals (record and spread) both point to a modest edge for WKU, producing a win probability slightly above 50 percent.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 12, 6:53 AM PDTClaude · Western Kentucky Hilltoppers · 55.0%
The only direct comparative signal is the DraftKings line of WKU -1.5, which makes Western Kentucky a narrow road favorite at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium. A 1.5-point spread historically converts to roughly a 53-56% win probability for the favorite. Records weakly support the same lean (WKU 2-4 vs Sam Houston 1-4), and WKU being favored despite playing away implies the market views it as the modestly stronger team on a neutral basis. With no rankings, injury reports, or efficiency metrics available, there is no justification for moving far from the market-implied figure, so I settle at 55% for WKU.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 12, 6:53 AM PDTGemini · Western Kentucky Hilltoppers · 53.5%
Western Kentucky is a slight 1.5-point road favorite despite both teams having losing records. The narrow spread indicates a very close matchup, but the market leans slightly toward the Hilltoppers.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 12, 6:53 AM PDTGPT · Western Kentucky Hilltoppers · 54.0%
Western Kentucky is the slight favorite in the supplied market line (WKU -1.5), which is the strongest comparative signal in the evidence package. Both teams have poor and fairly similar records, with Western Kentucky at 2-4 and Sam Houston at 1-4, giving a small additional edge to Western Kentucky. Sam Houston is at home at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, which offsets part of that edge, so the overall estimate stays close to a coin flip. With no rankings and no other comparative team-quality data in the package, the best evidence-bounded forecast is a narrow Western Kentucky win probability.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 12, 6:52 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced efficiency or injury data available
- Rankings both null
- Evidence limited to scoreboard records, venue, and single market line
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, yards-per-play, or turnover metrics
- No rankings for either team
- No strength-of-schedule or common-opponent context behind the records
- Single market provider; no line movement history or closing-line information
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
85ede656184426f69a42931b9fbd1dea79b068696c357f10960d6a25eb937525 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
eb9a97aaad47f08a5f53eb3f2ab49010324145f0b16804d1a05cbff528bcebb9
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Final
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