Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 13, 4:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTDavi Cabral RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK56.9% Simple average56.9% Calibrated average57.5% Kalshi41.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Douglas da Lapa vs Davi Cabral
56.9%Davi Cabral
LOCKED Oct 13, 3:03 PM PDTAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 56.88% for Davi Cabral. 4/4 models select this fighter.
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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.
- Confirm every probability refers to the same outcome.
- Check the forecast lock and market observation times.
- Record the difference and what it does not establish.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Cabral unbeaten 7-0 with four finishes, mostly round one
- Gemini: Davi Cabral's undefeated 7-0 professional record
- Grok: Davi Cabral 7-0 record with four finishes
- GPT: Davi Cabral has a verified undefeated 7-0 professional record in the supplied evidence.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Davi Cabral · 58.0%
Cabral is the only verified fighter: 7-0 with four early finishes (three first-round TKOs, one RNC) and consistent activity through Jul 2026. Da Lapa has no verified profile, so the edge is modest and driven by asymmetric evidence rather than a demonstrated skill gap.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 12:43 PM PDTGemini · Davi Cabral · 51.5%
Davi Cabral enters the bout with an undefeated 7-0 professional record, including four finishes in his last five regional appearances. However, there is a complete absence of data regarding his opponent, Douglas da Lapa. Due to this extreme asymmetry in information, the forecast leans slightly toward the known undefeated fighter but remains very close to a coin flip to reflect the profound uncertainty.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 12:43 PM PDTGrok · Davi Cabral · 58.0%
Davi Cabral holds a verified 7-0 record with five documented professional wins, four by finish inside three rounds. Douglas da Lapa has no profile, record, or performance data supplied. The absence of any information on one fighter limits the edge that can be assigned despite Cabral's clean record and recent activity.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 12:43 PM PDTGPT · Davi Cabral · 60.0%
Davi Cabral is the only fighter in this matchup with a verified pre-event profile in the supplied evidence. That profile shows a 7-0 record, age 27, and a recent run with four finishes in his last five fights, including three straight first-round stoppages before a split-decision win in July 2026. That gives at least some verified evidence of momentum and finishing ability. However, the forecast must be heavily tempered because there is no verified profile data at all for Douglas da Lapa in the canonical evidence, including no record, physicals, style metrics, or recent fight history. With one-sided evidence this cannot justify a strong lean, so the probability stays relatively close to 50%.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 12:43 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No Douglas da Lapa record, physicals or metrics available
- No striking or grappling rate stats for either fighter
- No verified late context and no odds reference
- Complete lack of profile, record, or statistics for Douglas da Lapa
- No striking or grappling metrics available for Davi Cabral
- Absence of licensed pre-event odds to gauge market sentiment
- Douglas da Lapa profile unavailable
- No striking, grappling, or physical metrics for either fighter
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
ccefddb1ba30a49f55489570c1af9732050b878ce4abf7b45657fdaf4add9968 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
e24d5dd8ce5b686ef998efb923b415891b15c7fb9bc02c36b0d1c37ce8b1ff41
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Davi Cabral. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 3:03 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 3:00 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 13, 3:09 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
2271c6a5a8f458f97ba9844eb050984b4da4f3a7cb6085448bf2bc370eee6724Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Douglas da Lapa def. Davi Cabral · TKO (punches) · R3 · 0:19
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