Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 9:00 AM PDT FORECASTTexas Longhorns RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Texas Longhorns vs Florida Gators
79.8%Texas Longhorns
LOCKED Oct 17, 8:32 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Texas Longhorns; all four oriented probabilities average 79.75%.
15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Texas is ranked #7 in the nation.
- Claude: DraftKings line TEX -11.5 implies roughly 80-83% win probability for Texas
- GPT: Market line: Texas -11.5, indicating a substantial expected edge
- Grok: Texas 4-1 record and #7 ranking vs Florida 4-2 and unranked
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Texas Longhorns · 81.0%
Texas is ranked #7 with a 4-1 record and benefits from home-field advantage at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. The market favors the Longhorns by 11.5 points, which historically translates to a win probability of approximately 80-82%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 15, 8:38 AM PDTClaude · Texas Longhorns · 81.0%
Texas is the No. 7-ranked team at 4-1, hosting an unranked 4-2 Florida squad at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. The DraftKings line of TEX -11.5 with a 51.5 total is the strongest available signal; a double-digit home favorite in that range historically wins roughly 80-83% of the time. Ranking and record differentials point the same direction, so there is no conflicting evidence to discount the market. Absence of injury, depth-chart, and efficiency data prevents a more confident departure from the market-implied baseline.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 15, 8:38 AM PDTGPT · Texas Longhorns · 79.0%
Texas is the stronger side on the supplied immutable evidence. The Longhorns have the better record (4-1 vs 4-2), are the only ranked team listed (#7), are at home at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, and are favored by 11.5 points in the provided market line. An 11.5-point home spread in college football is a strong comparative signal and is the most important single input here. With no conflicting facts in the package, the evidence supports Texas as a clear but not certain favorite.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 15, 8:38 AM PDTGrok · Texas Longhorns · 78.0%
Texas enters with a 4-1 record and #7 ranking versus Florida's 4-2 record and unranked status. The -11.5 spread at home in DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium supplies a strong comparative signal favoring Texas. The evidence package contains no conflicting facts but lacks injuries and efficiency metrics, capping certainty.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 15, 8:38 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury reports or depth chart changes are provided.
- Advanced team efficiency metrics (like SP+ or FPI) are missing.
- Weather conditions at the venue are unknown.
- No injury or availability reports provided for either team
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or opponent-quality data
- Single market provider snapshot; no line movement history
- Data current as of 2026-10-15, two days before kickoff
- No information on weather, travel, or situational/rivalry factors
What to watch next
Wait for the official result. The locked forecast stays unchanged.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.3 percentage points higher for Texas Longhorns
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
37033202195811ba42c9b0e1289db672b22cf2c2c817c12840c896ee858b0751 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
b6fb893a089a2bb829a19494c8b10b02a2543248e3428392c55d0088ce72ca7a
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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