Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 11, 5:20 PM PDT FORECASTAtlanta Falcons RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK55.8% Simple average55.8% Calibrated average56.3% Kalshi63.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons
55.8%Atlanta Falcons
LOCKED Oct 11, 4:50 PM PDT3/4 independent models select Atlanta Falcons; all four oriented probabilities average 55.75%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Ravens 3-1 record vs Falcons 2-2 record
- Claude: DraftKings line ATL -3 implies home-favorite win probability near 57-60%
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Atlanta -3
- Gemini: Atlanta is favored by 3 points.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Baltimore Ravens · 52.0%
Ravens enter at 3-1 while Falcons are 2-2; the only comparative records favor Baltimore. Game is on the road in Atlanta with a market spread of ATL -3, implying the home side is viewed as slightly stronger. No other team statistics, quarterback information, or advanced metrics are supplied, so the edge is minimal and the outcome remains close to a coin flip.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 6, 7:25 AM PDTClaude · Atlanta Falcons · 58.0%
The only direct market signal is DraftKings ATL -3 at home, which historically converts to roughly a 57-60% win probability for the home favorite. That the market installs the 2-2 Falcons as a 3-point favorite over the 3-1 Ravens suggests the books are pricing in information beyond records (home field, personnel/availability, underlying efficiency). Records alone would mildly favor Baltimore, but closing-type lines are the stronger predictor, so I lean Atlanta modestly while keeping the estimate near the spread-implied baseline rather than extending further.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 6, 7:25 AM PDTGPT · Atlanta Falcons · 58.0%
Atlanta is the best evidence-backed pick because the immutable package includes a market line of Falcons -3 at home, which is the strongest comparative signal provided. Baltimore has the better listed record (3-1 vs 2-2), but an NFL spread of -3 for the home team generally indicates the market still rates Atlanta as the more likely winner despite that record gap. With no injury, quarterback, or weather detail available to materially adjust the estimate, the line and home field carry the forecast. The game is not a mismatch, so the win probability should stay in a modest favorite range rather than something much higher.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 6, 7:25 AM PDTGemini · Atlanta Falcons · 59.0%
The Atlanta Falcons are favored by 3 points at home against the Baltimore Ravens. A -3 spread typically translates to a win probability of around 58-60% for the favorite. Despite Baltimore's slightly better 3-1 record compared to Atlanta's 2-2, the betting market favors the home team.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 6, 7:25 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No offensive or defensive statistics provided
- Injury reports listed as empty and noted as potentially incomplete
- No quarterback or coaching detail available
- Weather and travel factors omitted
- No moneyline prices provided; probability inferred from spread conversion
- Injury lists are empty for both teams and likely incomplete pre-game-status reports
- No quarterback status or depth-chart information supplied
- Line captured ~6 days pre-kickoff; could move materially
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Selection changed from Baltimore Ravens to Atlanta Falcons
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
f543125d87502eaccdd109d46f9660b69b49a308c985ffab51971a41b6c656e2 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
c13298a6a7df86373b96d4e9c8e4dd4e783bb06756cc5be895e6306d656bd5c4
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Atlanta Falcons. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 11, 4:50 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 11, 4:45 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 11, 4:54 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
894dad8fed823cf474c6ebbf4eb49c783cfae6b961327951e0a6c87c7dd48609Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Baltimore Ravens 30, Atlanta Falcons 23
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