Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 10, 2:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTMalcolm Wellmaker RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK51.2% Simple average51.2% Calibrated average51.4% Kalshi66.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi
51.3%Malcolm Wellmaker
LOCKED Oct 10, 1:03 PM PDTAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 51.25% for Malcolm Wellmaker. 2/4 models select this fighter. Low confidence; the house still publishes a winner forecast.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Tanzilovi takedown volume vs Wellmaker 47% TDD
- Gemini: Wellmaker's proven first-round knockout power (6 first-round finishes)
- GPT: Tanzilovi has the clearest wrestling-based path: 4.50 takedowns per 15 minutes versus Wellmaker’s 0.00.
- Grok: Wellmaker career 6 KO wins and 6 first-round finishes
Read all four model reports
Claude · Otari Tanzilovi · 52.5%
Tanzilovi's grappling profile (4.5 TD/15min, 86% takedown defense) matches up well against Wellmaker's weak 47% takedown defense and proven submission vulnerability. Wellmaker's one-shot power keeps this near a coin flip.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 6, 7:54 AM PDTGemini · Malcolm Wellmaker · 61.5%
Malcolm Wellmaker possesses explosive early finishing power, evidenced by his first-round knockout victories over established UFC veterans like Cameron Saaiman and Kris Moutinho. Although he is currently on a two-fight skid, his striking volume and proven ability to end fights early give him a distinct advantage, especially in a bout added on short notice (11 days prior). Otari Tanzilovi shows grappling intent with 4.50 takedowns per 15 minutes, which could theoretically exploit Wellmaker's 47% takedown defense, but Tanzilovi's 0% takedown accuracy suggests inefficiency in securing those attempts. The short-notice nature of the fight generally favors the fighter with early finishing upside, making Wellmaker the more likely victor.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 6, 7:54 AM PDTGPT · Otari Tanzilovi · 57.0%
Tanzilovi gets a slight pre-event edge based on a more credible grappling path in a matchup where the striking numbers are fairly close. Wellmaker has stronger recent finishing upside on paper, with multiple recent first-round UFC-level knockouts, but his supplied stats show 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes and 47% takedown defense, and his most recent loss came by rear-naked choke. Tanzilovi’s profile shows 4.50 takedowns per 15 minutes and 86% takedown defense, which suggests a clearer alternate win condition if he can consistently force wrestling exchanges. On the feet, both men land over four significant strikes per minute and absorb about the same amount, so the stand-up side alone does not separate them enough to override the grappling contrast. The probability stays modest because the evidence is thin, some stats appear based on limited sample sizes, and the verified late context is
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 6, 7:53 AM PDTGrok · Malcolm Wellmaker · 53.0%
Both fighters enter with identical 10-2 records and similar physical profiles at 5'9". Wellmaker shows higher striking volume and multiple first-round KO finishes against UFC-level opponents including Saaiman and Moutinho, while Tanzilovi posts higher striking accuracy and a notable 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. Recent form is mixed for both with two UFC losses each in the last year. The bout addition 11 days prior introduces uncertainty around preparation.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 6, 7:53 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No pre-event odds; no reach or stance data
- Takedown accuracy listed as 0% contradicts 4.5 TD/15min, so grappling stats are noisy small-sample
- Bout added 11 days out suggests short-notice prep for both; camp quality unverified
- Missing reach and stance data for both fighters
- Contradictory takedown statistics for Tanzilovi (4.50 takedowns per 15 minutes but 0% accuracy)
- The short-notice nature of the bout introduces significant preparation and cardio unknowns
- The only verified late-context item is that this bout was added 11.05 days before the event. That matters: a late-added fight can compress preparation time and game-planning for at
- Only one late-context factor was verified. There is no verified evidence here for missed weight, short notice assigned to a specific fighter, opponent replacement, catchweight, inj
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.5 percentage points lower for Malcolm Wellmaker
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
c4ef6e1c4bf009ded2d15f0e31e6299b359a10ee091ff5b5d977084b823f9e59 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
4e318e607ab4576aadf7b9e9512d731e014730aea6413724da27f4d02cb9e354
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Malcolm Wellmaker. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 10, 1:03 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 10, 1:00 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 10, 1:09 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
0cd25cb295f709562b2b5606bd83e06f022e5bffc57d611090af6ab2070c79e9Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Otari Tanzilovi def. Malcolm Wellmaker · KO · R2 · 2:39
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