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← Decision briefsMLB · Sep 13, 11:10 AM PDT FORECASTMilwaukee Brewers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers
63.4%Milwaukee Brewers
LOCKED Sep 13, 10:16 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Milwaukee Brewers; all four oriented probabilities average 63.38%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Record gap: Brewers 103-68 vs Reds 80-93
- Gemini: Brewers' dominant recent offense averaging 9.8 runs per game over the last 7 days
- Grok: Milwaukee 103-68 record vs Cincinnati 80-93
- GPT: Milwaukee has a far better season record: 103-68 versus Cincinnati's 80-93.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Milwaukee Brewers · 63.0%
Milwaukee is far the stronger club by record (103-68 vs 80-93) and by recent run production: 6.59 R/G with +2.41 run differential over 30 days and a scorching 9.8 R/G, +5.6 differential in the last five, while Cincinnati has scored 3.0 R/G with a -8.2 differential over its last five and -2.46 over 30 days. Home field, roughly neutral park (0.99) and weather (1.00), and similar bullpen availability (43 vs 44) leave the team-quality gap intact. The main offset is the pitching matchup: Chase Burns (2.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP; 3.33/1.23 recent) is clearly better than Robert Gasser (4.43 ERA, 1.28 WHIP; 4.07/1.44 recent), which trims Milwaukee's edge from what the records alone imply. Net: Brewers favored but not overwhelmingly.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 13, 9:15 AM PDTGemini · Milwaukee Brewers · 62.5%
Despite the Cincinnati Reds having a clear starting pitching advantage with Chase Burns (2.73 season ERA), the Milwaukee Brewers possess a massive offensive edge. The Brewers have averaged 9.8 runs per game over their last 7 days, compared to just 3 runs per game for the Reds. Combined with a significant disparity in overall season records, the Brewers are favored at home.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 13, 9:15 AM PDTGrok · Milwaukee Brewers · 63.0%
Milwaukee Brewers hold a 103-68 record versus Cincinnati's 80-93. Home team has posted 9.8 runs per game and +5.6 run differential over the last five contests while the visitors managed only 3 runs per game and -8.2 differential. Over the prior 27-28 games the Brewers still lead in offense (6.593 vs 4.429 runs per game) and run differential. The game is at Milwaukee with near-neutral park and weather factors. Lineups are confirmed with two changes each and bullpen availability nearly identical. Robert Gasser carries a higher ERA than Chase Burns but the overall team and recent performance edge favors the home side.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 13, 9:15 AM PDTGPT · Milwaukee Brewers · 65.0%
Milwaukee has the much stronger overall team profile and the much hotter recent offense. The Brewers are 103-68 at home versus Cincinnati at 80-93 on the road, a substantial season-long gap. Offensively, Milwaukee has scored 9.8 runs per game over its last 5 games and 6.593 over its last 27, while Cincinnati is at 3.0 over its last 5 and 4.429 over its last 28. That recent production gap is reinforced by run differential: Milwaukee is +5.6 per game over the last 5 and +2.407 over the last 27, while Cincinnati is -8.2 and -2.464. The main counterpoint is starting pitching, where Chase Burns has clearly better season and recent run-prevention numbers than Robert Gasser. That keeps Cincinnati live, but the Brewers still have the stronger total game outlook because of their superior season record, home field, and major recent offensive edge. Bullpen availability is nearly even, so it doesn’t
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 13, 9:15 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Lineups listed as confirmed but each side has 2 changes; individual hitter quality and injuries not provided
- Probable starters can be scratched; no pitch-count, rest, or platoon-split detail
- Short-window offense samples (5 games) are volatile and may overstate both trends
- No opponent-strength adjustment for recent run differentials
- No bullpen quality metrics, only an availability number of unclear scale
- No head-to-head or home/road splits supplied
- Bullpen quality metrics beyond simple availability are not provided
- The Reds' starting pitching advantage could potentially neutralize the Brewers' hot offense, adding variance to the outcome
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
d4da60934612550fae5025b53025b4ccd933f746f594c26a1148ff6d8d3c0756 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
e9520efce4d293271d81aa439af1f7ce42efaf0d681f321ed159f4352ef38253
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Cincinnati Reds 4, Milwaukee Brewers 3
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