College Football · Oct 17, 4:30 PM PDT

UCLA Bruins vs Wisconsin Badgers

66.5%UCLA Bruins

NOT LOCKED

4/4 independent models select UCLA Bruins; all four oriented probabilities average 66.5%.

FORECASTUCLA Bruins

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

Gemini: UCLA is undefeated with a 5-0 record
Claude: UCLA 5-0 and ranked #21; Wisconsin 4-1 and unranked
Grok: UCLA 5-0 record vs Wisconsin 4-1 record
GPT: UCLA is 5-0 while Wisconsin is 4-1.

Read all four model reports

Gemini · UCLA Bruins · 68.0%

UCLA enters the game undefeated at 5-0 and ranked #21, while Wisconsin is 4-1 and unranked. Playing at home in the Rose Bowl gives UCLA an additional advantage, making them the likely favorite.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 4:38 PM PDT

Claude · UCLA Bruins · 75.0%

UCLA enters undefeated at 5-0 and is nationally ranked (#21), while Wisconsin is 4-1 and unranked, implying a meaningful gap in both resume quality and perceived team strength. UCLA also appears to be the home team at the Rose Bowl, which typically adds roughly 2-3 points of value. Combining a modest ranking/record edge with home-field advantage supports a solid but not overwhelming favorite, consistent with roughly a touchdown-sized line. No market line, injury report, or efficiency metrics were supplied, so the estimate is anchored on record, ranking, and venue alone and is capped short of high confidence.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 4:38 PM PDT

Grok · UCLA Bruins · 62.0%

UCLA enters with a 5-0 record and #21 ranking while Wisconsin is 4-1 and unranked. The game is at UCLA's home venue, the Rose Bowl. These factors together indicate UCLA holds the comparative edge on the supplied scoreboard data.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 4:38 PM PDT

GPT · UCLA Bruins · 61.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, UCLA has the stronger pregame profile: a better record (5-0 vs 4-1), a national ranking (#21 vs unranked), and home field at the Rose Bowl. Those three factors all point in the same direction and provide a meaningful comparative signal. With no market line, injuries, or advanced efficiency data available, the estimate should stay moderate rather than aggressive. A reasonable evidence-bounded forecast is that UCLA wins somewhat more often than not, but not overwhelmingly.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 4:38 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

No market line or betting odds provided
Absence of advanced team efficiency metrics
No injury reports or depth chart updates available
No market line provided to calibrate implied win probability
No injury, depth-chart, or personnel information
No advanced efficiency metrics, strength-of-schedule, or scoring margin data
Opponent quality behind each record is unknown
Status listed as TBD; kickoff conditions and lineups unconfirmed

What to watch next

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What changed before the lock

Oct 10, 4:38 PM PDT · house adjudication completedFirst recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
c317e6a15b011c773792a0800151ad22336129424024a6d7c4be3de5a1aae863

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

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Available source context

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