Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 31, 2:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTLucia Szabova RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Lucia Szabova vs Tainara Lisboa
69.9%Lucia Szabova
NOT LOCKEDAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 69.88% for Lucia Szabova. 4/4 models select this fighter.
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15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
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Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Szabova's undefeated 10-0 professional record
- Claude: Szabova undefeated 10-0 with recent five-round decision over UFC veteran Lucie Pudilova
- Grok: Szabova's undefeated 10-0 record versus Lisboa's 7-4 mark
- GPT: Szabova is 10-0 while Lisboa is 7-4 in the supplied profiles.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Lucia Szabova · 78.5%
Lucia Szabova enters this matchup as an undefeated 10-0 prospect with significant momentum, including a recent five-round decision victory over UFC veteran Lucie Pudilova just months prior. In contrast, Tainara Lisboa is on a two-fight stoppage losing streak and has not competed in over a year. Lisboa's UFC statistics show a negative striking differential (2.01 landed vs. 2.88 absorbed per minute) and poor takedown accuracy (5%), which will likely be exploited by the highly active and finishing-oriented Szabova. The bout was added roughly 15 days before the event, which introduces some short-notice variance, but Szabova's recent activity gives her a distinct conditioning and sharpness advantage over the inactive Lisboa.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTClaude · Lucia Szabova · 76.0%
Szabova is 10-0 with a strong recent run in Oktagon, including three straight finishes/dominant results and a five-round unanimous decision over UFC veteran Lucie Pudilova in August 2026 — the single most useful translation point to UFC-level competition. She is also seven years younger (born 1997 vs 1991) and active, with a clean three-month turnaround. Lisboa enters on a two-fight skid, both finishes against her (TKO by Melissa Croden, keylock submission by Luana Santos), and her UFC metrics are weak: 2.01 strikes landed per minute against 2.88 absorbed, 46% striking defense, 53% takedown defense, and 5% takedown accuracy. Lisboa's path is her submission game (3 sub wins, 3 first-round finishes), which is a live threat against a debutant, and Szabova's lack of verified UFC-level striking/grappling statistics plus Octagon-debut adjustment keep this short of a lock.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGrok · Lucia Szabova · 61.0%
Szabova enters with a 10-0 record and five straight wins including a unanimous decision over Pudilova and multiple first-round finishes. Lisboa holds a 7-4 record with UFC-level striking and grappling metrics but has lost her last two UFC bouts by TKO and submission. Both fighters are 5'7" with comparable recent activity levels. The bout was added 15 days prior with no verified weight, injury or preparation issues.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGPT · Lucia Szabova · 64.0%
Szabova has the stronger pre-event profile in the supplied evidence: she is undefeated at 10-0, has won five straight recent fights, and her recent results include a five-round decision win plus multiple stoppages in 2025-2026. Lisboa has UFC-level stats available, but her recent form is weaker, with back-to-back losses in 2025 by submission and TKO after earlier wins in 2023. The age gap also modestly favors Szabova, who is younger. The biggest caution is that Szabova lacks UFC statistical detail in the record provided, so this forecast relies heavily on record and recent outcomes rather than deeper process metrics. The verified late-context item is that this bout was added about 15 days before the event; that compressed timeline increases uncertainty for both fighters and pulls the probability down from a stronger lean rather than changing the side.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Lack of official UFC performance statistics for Szabova
- Short-notice nature of the bout addition may affect preparation, weight cuts, and cardio for both fighters
- No licensed pre-event odds connected; no market anchor available
- Szabova profile lacks striking, grappling, reach and stance metrics; her record is from regional/Oktagon competition only
- Octagon-debut adjustment for Szabova is unverified — no UFC-level performance sample exists
- Late context only verifies 'bout added' ~15 days out; no information on injuries, weight, camp changes or notice length for either fighter
- Lisboa's opposition quality in her wins and the context of her recent losses are not detailed
- No verified information on whether either fighter accepted on short notice
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Record hash
0941631973c9e059c7368986a6fcd1709d4f56b8a06daa95e2e9f7635f24e531
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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