Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 17, 2:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTKatlyn Cerminara RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller
67.9%Katlyn Cerminara
NOT LOCKEDAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 67.88% for Katlyn Cerminara. 4/4 models select this fighter.
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15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Cerminara UFC-caliber volume striking and 7-inch height edge
- Gemini: Cerminara's 7-inch height advantage (5'9" vs 5'2")
- Grok: Cerminara 18-6 UFC record and verified performance stats
- GPT: Cerminara owns a large experience advantage: 18-6 record versus Stiller’s 6-1.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Katlyn Cerminara · 64.0%
Cerminara brings a large experience and size edge (5ft9 vs 5ft2) with proven UFC-level striking volume against top flyweights, while Stiller enters on under 9 days notice as a short-notice replacement whose wins are regional submissions. Cerminara's long layoff and 50 percent takedown defense keep this close.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 9:20 AM PDTGemini · Katlyn Cerminara · 72.5%
Katlyn Cerminara possesses a massive experience advantage, having fought the elite of the flyweight division for years, and holds a significant 7-inch height advantage over Mackenzie Stiller. Stiller is a regional prospect stepping in on less than 9 days' short notice to make a massive step up in competition. However, Cerminara is returning from a 2.5-year layoff at nearly 38 years of age, which introduces substantial risks regarding ring rust and age-related decline. Despite these concerns, Cerminara's physical tools, striking volume, and full camp preparation should allow her to keep the smaller, short-notice grappler at range.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 9:20 AM PDTGrok · Katlyn Cerminara · 68.0%
Cerminara holds an 18-6 UFC record with verified striking and grappling metrics plus multiple decision wins against ranked opponents. Stiller enters at 6-1 with five submission finishes but only secondary-record evidence and no UFC statistics. The 7-inch height and reach edge favors Cerminara. Short-notice replacement for Stiller adds uncertainty but both made weight at official weigh-ins.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 9:20 AM PDTGPT · Katlyn Cerminara · 67.0%
Cerminara has the much deeper proven UFC-level sample and a strong recent history of competitive success against established opposition, while Stiller is a short-notice replacement making a major step up in class on less than nine days' notice. The clearest evidence edge is Cerminara’s demonstrated ability to go three rounds and win decisions against ranked-caliber or well-established UFC flyweights, supported by official UFC performance stats over a meaningful sample. Stiller’s profile is promising, especially with repeated early submissions, but her evidence is thinner, lacks UFC statistical depth, and includes a lower-level résumé with only one noted loss coming by TKO. The late-context items matter here: this bout was added late, Stiller is explicitly verified as a short-notice opponent replacement, and both fighters successfully made weight, so there is no weigh-in penalty to either
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 9:20 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No striking or grappling metrics for Stiller; secondary record only
- No licensed pre-event odds or market signal available
- No verified data on camp, injury or reach for either fighter
- Lack of advanced striking and grappling metrics for Stiller due to her regional background
- Missing reach data for both fighters
- No licensed pre-event odds available to gauge market sentiment
- No UFC striking or grappling statistics available for Stiller
- Stiller's recent wins against lower-tier regional competition
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Record hash
00ae175e5353ab78c3cc262b40bf1d73748fb01a3c321bd728a9d67846c8b736
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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