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Tennis · Oct 13, 9:10 PM PDT

Rafael Jodar vs Botic Van De Zandschulp

71.5%Rafael Jodar
LOCKED Oct 13, 8:30 PM PDT

4/4 independent models select Rafael Jodar; all four oriented probabilities average 71.5%.

YOUR RESEARCH TASK

Check the evidence

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  1. Read the model reasons and reported limits.
  2. Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
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FORECASTRafael Jodar

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

21 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Gemini: Rafael Jodar is ranked No. 13 with 2659 points.
  • Grok: Current rank 13 versus 41
  • Claude: Rank 13 vs 41 and ranking points 2659 vs 1258 favor Jodar
  • GPT: ATP rank advantage for Rafael Jodar: 13 vs 41
Read all four model reports

Gemini · Rafael Jodar · 73.0%

Rafael Jodar is ranked significantly higher at No. 13 compared to Botic Van De Zandschulp at No. 41, with more than double the ranking points (2659 vs 1258). Jodar also boasts a superior season win-loss record of 38-16 (70.4%) and one title, whereas Van De Zandschulp is 26-21 (55.3%) with no titles. Based on these season-long metrics, Jodar is the clear favorite. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

Grok · Rafael Jodar · 74.0%

Rafael Jodar holds the superior current rank (13 vs 41), ranking points (2659 vs 1258), and season singles record (38-16 vs 26-21) with one title versus none. These supplied facts indicate Jodar as the stronger player on paper for this ATP event. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

Claude · Rafael Jodar · 71.0%

Jodar holds a clear edge on the only supplied indicators: ATP rank 13 vs 41, more than double the ranking points (2659 vs 1258), a stronger season record (38-16, 70.4% vs 26-21, 55.3%), and one title this season vs none. Both ranks are stable week-over-week, so there is no momentum signal distinguishing them beyond level. A ~28-place rank gap of this kind typically translates to roughly a 68-73% win probability for the higher-ranked player in best-of-three ATP Masters play, and best-of-three adds variance that caps confidence. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate rests solely on ranking and season win-loss data.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

GPT · Rafael Jodar · 68.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, Rafael Jodar has the stronger profile entering this match: a substantially better ATP rank (13 vs 41), more ranking points (2659 vs 1258), and the better season record (38-16 vs 26-21). His season win rate is also clearly higher. Those facts support Jodar as the more likely winner. Because the evidence package is explicitly limited, this estimate cannot account for potentially important match-specific factors. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • Surface-specific form is not supplied.
  • Injury information is unavailable.
  • Head-to-head records are missing.
  • Travel fatigue and market odds are not provided.
  • Surface form unavailable
  • Injuries unavailable
  • Head-to-head unavailable
  • Travel unavailable

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

  1. Probability unchanged

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hash7efbe52dd52a97118aa4cfd3a1aba69e65b0e5a4311e6acc74ca25ccd57da540
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hash806b68a158dab77e22df7c59aad960e5731e0f8a14f347792b4f01c9d9426e68

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Rafael Jodar. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 8:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 8:25 PM PDT.

Current TORK71.5%
Simple average71.5%
Calibrated average73.5%
Kalshi64.0%
Comparison record

Saved Oct 13, 8:34 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

814552105abcd569a94789d56f3a0966a69efeababaeeb40ebf0c90f3fbce069
Inspect the methods and progress →

Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: (12) Rafael Jodar (ESP) bt Botic Van De Zandschulp (NED) 6-7 (4-7) 6-4 6-2

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