Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 12:30 PM PDT FORECASTGeorgia Bulldogs RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Georgia Bulldogs vs Auburn Tigers
89.0%Georgia Bulldogs
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Georgia Bulldogs; all four oriented probabilities average 89%.
15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Georgia 6-0 record and #1 ranking
- Gemini: Georgia is undefeated (6-0) and ranked #1.
- Claude: DraftKings line UGA -19.5 implies ~90-93% win probability for Georgia
- GPT: Georgia has the better record: 6-0 vs 3-2.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Georgia Bulldogs · 85.0%
Georgia holds a 6-0 record and #1 ranking versus Auburn's 3-2 mark. The DraftKings line lists UGA as a 19.5-point home favorite at Sanford Stadium, supplying a clear comparative signal of superiority despite the absence of efficiency or injury data.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 15, 3:53 PM PDTGemini · Georgia Bulldogs · 93.0%
Georgia is the #1 ranked team in the country with an undefeated 6-0 record, playing at home against an unranked 3-2 Auburn team. The market heavily favors Georgia with a -19.5 point spread, which translates to an implied win probability of over 90%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 15, 3:53 PM PDTClaude · Georgia Bulldogs · 92.0%
Georgia is the consensus No. 1 team at 6-0, hosting at Sanford Stadium, and is laid as a 19.5-point favorite by DraftKings. Historical conversion of a ~19.5-point home spread maps to roughly a 90-93% straight-up win probability. Auburn's 3-2 record and unranked status provide no offsetting signal, and the total (49.5) implies a moderate-scoring game, which slightly reduces variance that an underdog needs to spring an upset. I anchor on the market-implied figure rather than adjusting, since no injury or efficiency data is supplied that would justify deviation.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 15, 3:53 PM PDTGPT · Georgia Bulldogs · 86.0%
Georgia is the clear favorite on the supplied evidence. The immutable package shows Georgia at 6-0 versus Auburn at 3-2, Georgia ranked No. 1 while Auburn is unranked, and the game is at Sanford Stadium. The strongest quantitative signal is the DraftKings market line of Georgia -19.5, which implies a substantial expected margin and strongly favors a Georgia win. These signals are all aligned and non-conflicting, so the best evidence-bounded estimate is a high but not absolute Georgia win probability.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 15, 3:53 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury or depth-chart information
- No advanced team efficiency metrics
- Evidence limited to records, ranking, venue, and spread
- Advanced efficiency metrics and team statistics are not provided.
- Injury reports and depth chart changes are missing.
- Weather conditions are unknown.
- No injury reports, QB status, or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or scoring-margin data
What to watch next
Wait for all required evidence and the pre-event lock. This view is not final.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
03d11522a0aa7444a095de0aeefc0af4522ad1c2d1219a5e8ea186178f044470
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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