Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 16, 10:50 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTTaylah Preston RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK72.8% Simple average72.8% Calibrated average74.9% Kalshi83.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Haruka Kaji vs Taylah Preston
72.8%Taylah Preston
LOCKED Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Taylah Preston; all four oriented probabilities average 72.75%.
Review official results
One lesson to investigate in future events.
- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
- Record a lesson without treating one result as proof.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Taylah Preston's rank of 86
- Grok: Taylah Preston current WTA rank 86 with 858 points; Haruka Kaji unranked
- Claude: Preston ranked 86 with 858 points; Kaji has no supplied rank
- GPT: Taylah Preston has the only explicit current rank provided: WTA No. 86.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Taylah Preston · 72.0%
Taylah Preston holds a significant advantage in both ranking (86th) and season win-loss record (39-25) compared to Haruka Kaji, whose rank is unlisted and who has a slightly weaker record (30-26). Without further context, Preston is the clear statistical favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTGrok · Taylah Preston · 70.0%
Taylah Preston holds the only supplied ranking (86) and a stronger season win rate (39-25) than Haruka Kaji (30-26, unranked). These immutable facts indicate Preston is the stronger player. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable. The evidence-bounded win probability for Taylah Preston is therefore 70%.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Taylah Preston · 76.0%
Preston is ranked No. 86 (improved from 91) with 858 ranking points and a 39-25 season record, while Kaji has no supplied ranking and a 30-26 record, implying a lower-tier (likely ITF/unranked-in-feed) level. The ranking gap plus superior win rate (0.609 vs 0.536) favors Preston clearly in a WTA qualifying first round. Offsetting factors: Kaji is a home player in Osaka (possible wildcard/familiar conditions), and qualifying rounds can be volatile. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable, so this estimate rests only on rank and season win-loss. I therefore moderate the edge rather than pushing toward a heavy favorite.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Taylah Preston · 73.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Taylah Preston has the clearly stronger profile. She has an explicit current WTA rank of 86, improved from 91, while Haruka Kaji has no current rank supplied in the package. Preston also has the better 2026 singles record at 39-25 versus Kaji’s 30-26, indicating both more wins and a stronger win rate. This is a qualifying match, so upset risk is meaningful, and the evidence set is narrow. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here, so the estimate should stay conservative rather than extreme. Based on ranking presence plus the superior season record, Preston is the more likely winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable
- Haruka Kaji's current ranking is not supplied
- Haruka Kaji ranking listed as null with no ranking points
- No surface-specific records or form supplied
- No head-to-head data available
- Injury status, travel, and market odds not provided
- No head-to-head data supplied
- Surface-specific form unavailable
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.5 percentage points higher for Taylah Preston
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
4b4a8d7032e1e1bf3eaf32068f4db09792bf2ab595a75787671c9d5ca5ac99d0 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
6e5f2cef794925ff36b87040f158c9b8ec9e04595121e260af664f50cbc74009
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Taylah Preston. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 16, 9:55 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
0e8fa624bd382984145944b1c3cb49e725ddbe67ba9cf950811fb800d55a6ad4Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Taylah Preston (AUS) bt Haruka Kaji (JPN) 3-1 ret
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