Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 11, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTNew York Jets RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK55.8% Simple average55.8% Calibrated average56.3% Kalshi57.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets
55.8%New York Jets
LOCKED Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select New York Jets; all four oriented probabilities average 55.75%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: The market line favors the New York Jets by 2.5 points.
- Claude: Market line NYJ -2.5 implies Jets are modest home favorites (~57-60%)
- Grok: Jets favored by 2.5 at home
- GPT: DraftKings lists New York Jets -2.5, making the Jets the implied favorite.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · New York Jets · 57.0%
Despite the Cleveland Browns having a superior 3-1 record compared to the New York Jets' 1-3 start, the betting market favors the Jets by 2.5 points. This suggests underlying metrics, matchup advantages, or situational factors (such as home-field advantage at MetLife Stadium) favor New York. A 2.5-point spread in the NFL typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 56-58% for the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 11, 6:55 AM PDTClaude · New York Jets · 57.0%
The only direct comparative market signal is DraftKings NYJ -2.5 at home with a low total of 38.5. A 2.5-point home favorite historically wins roughly 57-60% of the time, and the low total modestly compresses scoring variance in favor of the favorite. This conflicts with the season records (CLE 3-1, NYJ 1-3), which would favor Cleveland, but the point-in-time market line should already incorporate records, personnel, and situational information, making it the more informative input. I shade only slightly toward the Jets rather than the full market-implied figure because the record divergence is large and no injury or quarterback detail is supplied to explain it.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 11, 6:55 AM PDTGrok · New York Jets · 55.0%
Jets hold home-field status and are 2.5-point favorites per the DraftKings market line. Browns enter with superior 3-1 record versus Jets' 1-3, yet the spread implies the market views the matchup as close to even after adjusting for venue. No injury or QB data is supplied, limiting further differentiation.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 11, 6:55 AM PDTGPT · New York Jets · 54.0%
The strongest point-in-time comparative evidence is the market line: the Jets are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, which indicates they are more likely than not to win despite having the worse record. The Browns' 3-1 record versus the Jets' 1-3 record argues the other way, but market pricing generally incorporates broader team-strength expectations plus home field. With no usable injury or quarterback detail beyond empty lists and no weather input, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a narrow Jets edge rather than a strong favorite.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 11, 6:55 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No direct moneyline odds are provided, requiring the win probability to be estimated from the point spread.
- There is no information regarding starting quarterbacks or key injuries for either team.
- Weather conditions for the game are not included in the evidence package.
- Injury lists are empty for both teams; status reports may not yet have published
- No starting quarterback information provided
- No moneyline prices supplied, so implied probability must be inferred from the spread
- No weather data despite an outdoor October game in New Jersey
- Unexplained conflict between team records and the market line
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
f872d153acd45d2788b2e2b8a67d05a5e824792ae6a6cffa62ecf109e47c94c1 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
48ea8407febcc12c4e901847976fce2c940d9b56525bf2175aae1924fa2d8cd2
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to New York Jets. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 11, 9:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 11, 9:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 11, 9:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
36577e7b6d2300a781c3cc617fb757023dad23c374ee5cd153b4270c9dd88084Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Cleveland Browns 12, New York Jets 17
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Use this brief for a review →