Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 25, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTNew York Jets RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
67.0%New York Jets
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select New York Jets; all four oriented probabilities average 67%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Jets 2-3 record versus Dolphins 0-5
- Gemini: New York Jets are favored by 4.5 points
- Claude: DraftKings line NYJ -4.5 implies roughly a 70% home win probability
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists New York Jets -4.5 at home
Read all four model reports
Grok · New York Jets · 62.0%
Jets hold a 2-3 record compared to Dolphins' 0-5, host the game at MetLife Stadium, and are favored by 4.5 points per the DraftKings market line. These factors support a modest home favorite edge in week 7 of the 2026 season, though the estimate remains bounded by sparse comparative data.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 12:30 PM PDTGemini · New York Jets · 68.0%
The New York Jets are 4.5-point home favorites against the winless 0-5 Miami Dolphins. In the NFL, a 4.5-point spread typically translates to a moneyline around -220, which implies a win probability of approximately 65-68% for the favorite. The Jets also have the advantage of playing at home.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 12:30 PM PDTClaude · New York Jets · 70.0%
The Jets are home favorites at -4.5 on DraftKings, which historically maps to roughly a 68-72% win probability for a home favorite of that size. Supporting evidence aligns: New York is 2-3 while Miami is 0-5, and Miami must travel to MetLife Stadium. No injury or quarterback information is supplied for either side, and the low posted total (38.5) hints at either weather or offensive concerns, but nothing in the package contradicts the market read. I settle at 70%, essentially the spread-implied number with a small nod to the record gap and home-field edge.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 12:30 PM PDTGPT · New York Jets · 68.0%
The immutable evidence supports New York as the likelier winner. The Jets are at home, have the better record (2-3 vs. Miami's 0-5), and are favored by the supplied market line at NYJ -4.5. In NFL forecasting, an established home favorite of more than a field goal is meaningful comparative evidence, and it aligns with the current team records. There is no conflicting evidence in the package, so the best evidence-bounded estimate is a Jets win probability in the upper-60s.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 12:30 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No quarterback or injury details available
- Records reflect only first five games
- Weather and advanced metrics absent
- No direct moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread
- No injury reports are available for either team
- The game is nearly two weeks away, leaving time for significant changes in team status or market lines
- No moneyline prices provided, so implied probability is derived from the spread only
- Both injury lists are empty, likely reflecting incomplete reporting rather than full health
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Record hash
4bd6f49de01d7f3aa63908e035f3a4da60c7189789cd76218b274c4e4da8ee6c
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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