Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 16, 5:00 PM PDT FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs App State Mountaineers
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Oct 16, 4:32 PM PDT4/4 models favor App State Mountaineers, but the mean probability (53.63%) is below the house threshold.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: App State is favored by 1.5 points
- Claude: Market line APP -1.5 implies a modest road favorite (~54% win probability)
- Grok: App State 3-2 record vs Coastal 2-4
- GPT: Market line lists App State -1.5, indicating a small expected edge.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · App State Mountaineers · 53.5%
App State is a slight 1.5-point road favorite against Coastal Carolina. App State has a better record (3-2) compared to Coastal Carolina (2-4). The narrow spread suggests a close game, but the market favors the Mountaineers despite playing away from home.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 15, 2:23 PM PDTClaude · App State Mountaineers · 54.0%
DraftKings lists App State as a 1.5-point road favorite, which is the single most informative supplied signal. A 1.5-point spread converts to roughly a 53-56% win probability for the favorite, since margins near a field goal or less are common and the key number 3 lies just above this line. App State's 3-2 record versus Coastal Carolina's 2-4 is directionally consistent with the line, while Coastal's home field at Brooks Stadium is already embedded in the market price (App would be a larger favorite on neutral ground). With no rankings, injury data, or efficiency metrics supplied, there is no basis to deviate materially from the market-implied estimate.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 15, 2:23 PM PDTGrok · App State Mountaineers · 53.0%
App State enters with the superior 3-2 record versus Coastal Carolina's 2-4. The DraftKings market line lists App State as a 1.5-point road favorite, supplying the only comparative signal. The game is at Coastal's home venue, which narrows the edge but does not overcome the record and line differential.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 15, 2:23 PM PDTGPT · App State Mountaineers · 54.0%
App State has the stronger supplied record (3-2 vs 2-4) and is a slight market favorite at App -1.5, which is the clearest comparative signal in the evidence package. Coastal Carolina is at home at Brooks Stadium, which offsets some of App State’s edge, so the game does not project as lopsided. With no rankings and no injury or efficiency data available, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a narrow App State win probability in the mid-50s.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 15, 2:23 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced statistics or efficiency metrics provided
- No injury reports or depth chart changes available
- Weather conditions are unknown
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FEI, or point-differential data
- Records lack strength-of-schedule or conference-vs-nonconference context
- Single sportsbook line with no line-movement or opening-number history
- No weather or travel detail for the Friday night game
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
4956f8c3e471efa6031d6e4b16d9625cff57cca4b14481159acee9b5164c5342 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
2c738ca5d684f0121d9814c8397b71998ccc18a77b1a2af772aa50b5e059fb61
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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