Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMLB · Sep 13, 1:05 PM PDT FORECASTSeattle Mariners RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics
56.0%Seattle Mariners
LOCKED Sep 13, 12:15 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Seattle Mariners; all four oriented probabilities average 56%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Bullpen availability gap (Seattle 68 vs Athletics 31) is the single largest structural edge, amplified by a 1.15 park run factor that raises the chance of a bullpen-heavy game
- Gemini: Seattle's offense averaging 6.333 runs per game over the last 7 days
- Grok: Mariners recent offense 6.33 RPG vs Athletics 2.83
- GPT: Seattle's recent offense is far stronger: 6.333 runs per game over the last 6 vs 2.833 for Oakland.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Seattle Mariners · 56.0%
Seattle carries the better overall profile in this evidence package: a stronger record (78-93 vs 74-100), a better 30-day offense (5.04 R/G vs 4.43), a dramatically better recent 6-game run of form (6.33 R/G and +2.67 run differential vs 2.83 R/G and -3.00 for the Athletics), and a large bullpen availability edge (68 vs 31), which matters a lot in a park with a 1.15 run factor where both starters may exit early. The main counterweight is the starting pitching matchup on recent form: Bryce Miller's 30-day line (8.31 ERA, 1.90 WHIP) is far worse than his season marks (4.22 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), while Jacob Lopez has been trending the other way (3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 30 days vs 4.78/1.45 season). Add standard home-field advantage for the Athletics and the edge narrows considerably. Netting the team-quality, offense and bullpen advantages against the home-field and recent-starter-form advantag
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 13, 10:46 AM PDTGemini · Seattle Mariners · 56.0%
Despite Bryce Miller's recent struggles on the mound, the Mariners have a significant advantage in recent offensive production and bullpen availability. The Athletics' bullpen is heavily taxed, which could be detrimental in a high-run environment park against a Mariners lineup averaging over 6 runs per game in the last week.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 13, 10:45 AM PDTGrok · Seattle Mariners · 54.0%
Mariners hold a clear edge in recent offense (6.33 runs per game over last 6 vs Athletics 2.83) and bullpen availability (68 vs 31). Both teams have identical lineup change counts and confirmed lineups. Home park favors runs but the away starter's poor recent ERA (8.31) is offset by the home starter's weaker season numbers and the large bullpen gap. Overall records favor Mariners modestly.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 13, 10:45 AM PDTGPT · Seattle Mariners · 58.0%
Seattle has the stronger overall case, but not by a huge margin. The Mariners have been the much better recent offense, scoring 6.33 runs per game over their last 6 versus 2.83 for the Athletics, and they also hold the better 30-day scoring profile. Their bullpen availability is substantially better (68 vs 31), which matters in a game with a hitter-friendly park factor of 1.15 where relievers may be important. The main counterpoint is the starting-pitcher trend: Bryce Miller's recent 30-day numbers are poor (8.31 ERA, 1.90 WHIP), while Jacob Lopez has been better recently (3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). Even so, Seattle's stronger offense, slightly better full-season starter baseline, and fresher bullpen give them the edge.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 13, 10:45 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Listed starters (Bryce Miller, Jacob Lopez) are probable pitchers and can be scratched or have their workload limited; all pitcher-based reasoning is conditional on them actually s
- Lineups are marked confirmed but with 4 changes per side, and no player-level names, injuries, or rest information is provided, so I cannot assess who is actually in each batting o
- Recent-form samples are very small: 6 games of team offense and 30-day pitcher splits are noisy and can overstate both Miller's collapse and Lopez's improvement.
- No head-to-head history, no home/away splits, no platoon or handedness data, and no bullpen quality metrics are supplied — only a single availability number per team.
- The bullpen availability figures are unexplained index values; their exact scale and construction are not defined in the package.
- No odds, market, or closing-line information is available or used, and no betting-value judgment is made.
- Both teams have 4 lineup changes which could alter expected offensive production
- Recent 30-day pitching stats may be subject to small sample size variance
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
3e0dbc70bae09de85986e65433ae9178129df3c5dc10724c841572c819fc6b99 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
6f1c93c3be966f0d39a6574348821d56bb3114af4f7f12f54515c24f67262203
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Seattle Mariners 7, Athletics 8
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