Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 3:05 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTKamilla Rakhimova RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK58.3% Simple average58.3% Calibrated average59.0% Kalshi52.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Kamilla Rakhimova vs Dayana Yastremska
58.3%Kamilla Rakhimova
LOCKED Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Kamilla Rakhimova; all four oriented probabilities average 58.25%.
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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.
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22 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Ranking edge to Rakhimova: No. 69 vs No. 103 (959 vs 727 points)
- Gemini: Rakhimova's higher ranking (69 vs 103)
- Grok: Rakhimova current rank 69 vs Yastremska 103
- GPT: Rakhimova has the higher current rank: 69 vs 103.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Kamilla Rakhimova · 57.0%
Only two evidence classes are supplied: current ESPN ranking and season singles win-loss. Rakhimova is ranked 69 (959 points) versus Yastremska at 103 (727 points), a modest ~34-place gap that typically translates to a small favorite's edge rather than a decisive one. Season records are nearly identical in quality (24-27, .471 vs 18-21, .462), and both players have improved their ranking from the prior week, so form signals do not separate them. This is a qualifying first round, where ranking gaps of this size are routinely overturned. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable in this package, so the estimate rests solely on ranking and aggregate record and is held close to a coin flip.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 11:40 PM PDTGemini · Kamilla Rakhimova · 60.0%
Kamilla Rakhimova holds a distinct ranking advantage over Dayana Yastremska (69 vs 103) and has accumulated more ranking points (959 vs 727). Both players have similar season win percentages just below 50%, but Rakhimova's higher standing on the tour makes her the moderate favorite. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 11:40 PM PDTGrok · Kamilla Rakhimova · 58.0%
Rakhimova holds the superior current rank (69 vs 103), higher ranking points (959 vs 727), and a comparable but slightly higher win total (24-27 vs 18-21). These supplied facts indicate a modest edge for Rakhimova. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 11:40 PM PDTGPT · Kamilla Rakhimova · 58.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Kamilla Rakhimova has the stronger baseline profile. She is ranked higher than Dayana Yastremska (69 vs 103), has more ranking points (959 vs 727), and owns the better 2026 singles record in both total wins (24 vs 18) and win rate (24-27, 47.1%, vs 18-21, 46.2%). Both players have improved from their previous rankings, so recent directional movement does not clearly separate them. Because the available evidence is limited to current ranking and season record, the edge goes to Rakhimova but not by a wide margin. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 11:40 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific (hard court) form not supplied
- Injury and fitness status not supplied
- Head-to-head record not supplied
- Travel, scheduling, and recent-match fatigue not supplied
- Market odds not supplied, so no external calibration anchor
- No recent match-by-match results, only aggregate season W-L
- Surface form is unavailable
- Injuries are unavailable
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.3 percentage points lower for Kamilla Rakhimova
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
ceba2e400df61d2f956fd687d674086bbffa4017465c870e1f18d3473836a3cf - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
e4626d646604735cae76c2854905cd0f5f89e7b166a5ffe3588522c54521fbc2
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Kamilla Rakhimova. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 17, 12:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 17, 12:30 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
71018f2114cd7fd89cab88a7b879fc7caa26a65ca9058df3b3d02ccfbc3c83f4Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Kamilla Rakhimova (UZB) bt Dayana Yastremska (UKR) 6-2 6-4
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