Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 18, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons
—No winner forecast available
NOT LOCKED4/4 models favor Chicago Bears, but the mean probability (54.38%) is below the house threshold.
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
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15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Chicago Bears are favored by 1.5 points on the road.
- Claude: Market line CHI -1.5 (road favorite) implies ~55-57% Chicago win probability
- Grok: Bears 3-2 record vs Falcons 2-3
- GPT: DraftKings spread shows Chicago -1.5, indicating the market slightly prefers the Bears despite being on the road.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Chicago Bears · 53.5%
The Chicago Bears are slight 1.5-point road favorites against the Atlanta Falcons. With a 3-2 record compared to Atlanta's 2-3, the market slightly favors the Bears despite the Falcons having home-field advantage. A 1.5-point spread typically translates to roughly a 53-55% implied win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 10:20 PM PDTClaude · Chicago Bears · 56.0%
DraftKings lists Chicago as a 1.5-point road favorite, which is the most informative single piece of evidence. A 1.5-point favorite typically translates to roughly a 54-58% win probability; being favored on the road implies the market views the Bears as a meaningfully better team than the raw spread suggests after removing home-field value. Records modestly corroborate this (CHI 3-2 vs ATL 2-3). Atlanta's home-field edge in a dome partially offsets, and the 52.5 total suggests a moderately high-scoring, somewhat variance-prone game, keeping the estimate close to the coin-flip band.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 10:20 PM PDTGrok · Chicago Bears · 54.0%
Bears enter at 3-2 while Falcons are 2-3. DraftKings lists CHI -1.5 on the road, indicating the market views Chicago as the slightly superior side. Home-field advantage for Atlanta is offset by the Bears' better record and the small spread favoring the visitors. No injury or QB data is supplied, limiting precision but not creating direct conflict.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 10:20 PM PDTGPT · Chicago Bears · 54.0%
The best immutable evidence slightly favors Chicago. The Bears have the better record (3-2 vs 2-3), and the supplied market signal lists Chicago -1.5 on the road, which is the strongest comparative indicator in the package. A road favorite is typically modestly more likely than not to win outright, but the small spread suggests a close game rather than a clear mismatch. With no weather concerns provided and no reported injuries in the package, the evidence supports only a narrow edge for Chicago.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 10:20 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- No injury reports or starting quarterback information are available.
- No moneyline prices provided, so spread-to-probability conversion is approximate
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than genuinely clean
- No quarterback status, depth-chart, or recent-form detail supplied
- No point differential, strength-of-schedule, or efficiency metrics available
- Weather field null (indoor venue, low impact)
- No quarterback or injury details provided
What to watch next
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Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
898a6951749bf28e30a08f4c7ed982b1bf7e5ce883040ec1896261b86fa148f8
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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