Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 24, 5:15 PM PDT FORECASTGreen Bay Packers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers
65.9%Green Bay Packers
LOCKED Sep 24, 4:45 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Green Bay Packers; all four oriented probabilities average 65.88%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- GPT: Green Bay is the home team at Lambeau Field.
- Gemini: Green Bay is favored by 4.5 points
- Grok: Packers hold superior 1-1 record versus Falcons 0-2
- Claude: Market line GB -4.5 at home implies ~68-71% home win probability
Read all four model reports
GPT · Green Bay Packers · 64.0%
Green Bay is the better-supported favorite in the supplied evidence. The Packers are at home at Lambeau Field, enter with the stronger early record (1-1 vs. Atlanta's 0-2), and the only market evidence provided lists Green Bay -4.5. In NFL pricing, a 4.5-point home favorite is a meaningful edge and is the strongest comparative signal in this package. With no contradictory evidence in the package, Green Bay should be favored to win, but confidence should remain moderate because there is no quarterback, weather, or meaningful injury detail beyond empty lists, and the records are from only two games.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 23, 10:35 AM PDTGemini · Green Bay Packers · 67.5%
The Green Bay Packers are favored by 4.5 points at home against the winless Atlanta Falcons. A 4.5-point spread typically implies a win probability of roughly 67-68% for the home favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 23, 10:35 AM PDTGrok · Green Bay Packers · 63.0%
Packers enter at 1-1 while Falcons are 0-2. Game is at Lambeau Field where Green Bay is favored by 4.5 points on the market line. Early-season records and home status supply the only comparative signals; no other performance metrics are supplied.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 23, 10:35 AM PDTClaude · Green Bay Packers · 69.0%
DraftKings lists Green Bay -4.5 at home (Lambeau, Thursday night), which historically converts to roughly a 68-71% win probability for the favorite. Supporting evidence aligns: Green Bay is 1-1 while Atlanta is 0-2, and the Packers hold home-field advantage. The low total (42.5) slightly compresses favorite win equity versus a high-scoring game, but not enough to move materially off the line-implied estimate. No injury or quarterback status is supplied for either side, so I anchor to the market and records rather than adjusting.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 23, 10:35 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds are provided, only a point spread.
- Records are based on just two games, so sample size is small.
- Weather data is unavailable in the package.
- Injury availability may be incomplete until official game-status reports publish.
- No quarterback-specific or other lineup-strength details are included.
- No moneyline odds are provided
- No injury information is available
- Early season records provide a limited sample size for team strength
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
e937ef8e8573b8d89a3ea6e47798975f2c65ec1ada780c150dcbbf5ee5d5a578 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
91842fb06ba50d35972f0b6d5e0f13796ced475d9d6f7965addd5f0c4e2fbb80
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Atlanta Falcons 35, Green Bay Packers 14
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