Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 3:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTOregon State Beavers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Oregon State Beavers vs Washington State Cougars
86.0%Oregon State Beavers
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Oregon State Beavers; all four oriented probabilities average 86%.
Check the evidence
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Oregon State is favored by 18.5 points.
- Grok: Oregon State record 4-2 vs Washington State 1-5
- Claude: DraftKings line ORST -18.5 implies ~90% favorite win probability
- GPT: Oregon State record advantage: 4-2 versus Washington State's 1-5
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Oregon State Beavers · 88.0%
Oregon State is a significant 18.5-point favorite at home with a 4-2 record compared to Washington State's 1-5 record. The large point spread strongly indicates a high probability of an Oregon State victory.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTGrok · Oregon State Beavers · 83.0%
Oregon State enters at 4-2 while Washington State is 1-5. Oregon State is the home team at Reser Stadium and is favored by 18.5 points on the market line. These factors together indicate a substantial edge for Oregon State to win the game.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTClaude · Oregon State Beavers · 90.0%
Oregon State is a large home favorite at -18.5 on DraftKings, which historically converts to roughly an 88-92% win probability for the favorite. The supplied records reinforce this direction: Oregon State at 4-2 versus Washington State at 1-5, with the game at Reser Stadium. Neither team is ranked, and no injury or efficiency data is provided, but the market line and record gap point the same way, so no conflict exists in the evidence. I anchor on the line-implied figure and apply a modest haircut for unknown late personnel news.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTGPT · Oregon State Beavers · 83.0%
Oregon State is the clear favorite on the supplied evidence. The comparative signals all point the same way: Oregon State has the much better record (4-2 vs 1-5), is playing at home at Reser Stadium, and is favored by a very large market spread of 18.5 points. In college football, a spread that large usually implies a strong win expectation for the favorite. With no conflicting evidence in the package and no rankings to offset the line, the best evidence-bounded estimate is that Oregon State wins a substantial majority of the time. Washington State still retains some upset chance because this forecast lacks injury, roster, and efficiency detail.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced statistics or efficiency metrics provided.
- No injury reports or depth chart changes available.
- Weather conditions are not specified.
- No team rankings or advanced efficiency metrics supplied
- Injury and depth-chart information unavailable
- Evidence limited to records, venue, and market line only
- No injury or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency or strength-of-schedule metrics
What to watch next
Wait for all required evidence and the pre-event lock. This view is not final.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
d74739600ca94dd28dc585634458beca3f8fe3f4806a8cb328e98494b568f20c
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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