Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 9, 2:10 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTFrancisco Cerundolo RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK75.0% Simple average75.0% Calibrated average77.3% Kalshi49.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Roman Safiullin vs Francisco Cerundolo
75.0%Francisco Cerundolo
LOCKED Oct 9, 1:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Francisco Cerundolo; all four oriented probabilities average 75%.
Inspect forecast changes
A record of the change and whether it needs a follow-up.
- Compare the earlier and locked forecasts.
- Read the recorded reason and its limits.
- Decide whether the change needs further research.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Ranking gap: No. 20 vs No. 79 (2220 vs 744 points)
- Grok: Cerundolo rank 20 and 2220 points vs Safiullin rank 79 and 744 points
- Gemini: Francisco Cerundolo is ranked 59 places higher than Roman Safiullin (20 vs 79).
- GPT: Cerundolo is ranked No. 20, compared with Safiullin at No. 79.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Francisco Cerundolo · 71.0%
Cerundolo is markedly higher ranked (No. 20, 2220 points) than Safiullin (No. 79, 744 points), a gap of roughly 59 ranking places and a 3x points differential, which historically maps to around a 68-73% win expectation. Season records reinforce the edge: Cerundolo is 33-18 with 2 titles, while Safiullin is a break-even 6-6 with no titles (and a small sample suggesting limited match volume). Both players have slightly improved rank recently, so no directional form divergence is evident. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel/fatigue, and market odds are not supplied in the evidence package, which caps confidence — notably relevant here since a hard-court Masters venue could narrow the gap if either player's surface profile differs from their overall record.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 8, 9:50 PM PDTGrok · Francisco Cerundolo · 78.0%
Francisco Cerundolo holds a substantially superior current rank (20 vs 79), ranking points (2220 vs 744), and season singles record (33-18 vs 6-6) with two titles compared to zero. These supplied facts indicate a clear edge for Cerundolo. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 8, 9:50 PM PDTGemini · Francisco Cerundolo · 73.0%
Francisco Cerundolo holds a significant advantage in both ranking and season performance. Ranked 20th with 2220 points, he has a solid 33-18 win-loss record and two titles this season. In contrast, Roman Safiullin is ranked 79th with 744 points and has played far fewer matches, holding a 6-6 record. Cerundolo's higher ranking and proven match volume make him the clear favorite, though the lack of surface-specific data and head-to-head records limits absolute certainty.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 8, 9:50 PM PDTGPT · Francisco Cerundolo · 78.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Francisco Cerundolo has the materially stronger profile: a current ATP rank of 20 versus Roman Safiullin's 79, and a much better 2026 singles record of 33-18 versus 6-6. Both players show slight recent ranking improvement versus previous rank, but Cerundolo's overall standing and much larger positive season sample indicate he should be a clear favorite. Because the evidence package explicitly limits inputs to current ranking and season record only, this estimate cannot account for potentially important match-specific factors. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 8, 9:50 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific (hard court) form not supplied
- Injury and fitness status not supplied
- Head-to-head history not supplied
- Travel, scheduling, and prior-round workload not supplied
- Market odds not supplied
- Safiullin's 12-match season sample is small and may reflect missed time
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.0 percentage points higher for Francisco Cerundolo
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
904f74dc71a0bfc679b9c8daa420102c1dcfe0595ddd99473c656f4a7b28fe43 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
c7140d9358cb974d326b8c8e924857965176d8b7992a4c93bacffa822bab6431
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Francisco Cerundolo. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 9, 1:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 9, 1:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 9, 1:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
bcb1199fa1746a0444218a0c3f80613747d4397a399c604e496bd20d972fd2dbAvailable source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (21) Francisco Cerundolo (ARG) bt Roman Safiullin (RUS) 7-6 (7-5) 6-3
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Return to your review →