Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 16, 5:00 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTPurdue Boilermakers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Purdue Boilermakers vs Washington Huskies
58.0%Purdue Boilermakers
LOCKED Oct 16, 4:32 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Purdue Boilermakers; all four oriented probabilities average 58%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line PUR -3 implies roughly 58-61% win probability for Purdue
- Gemini: Purdue is favored by 3 points.
- Grok: Purdue home venue at Ross-Ade Stadium
- GPT: Both teams are 3-3, so record does not separate them.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Purdue Boilermakers · 58.0%
The only differentiating signal is the market line: DraftKings has Purdue -3 at home in Ross-Ade Stadium, with both teams at identical 3-3 records and neither ranked. A 3-point home favorite in college football historically converts to roughly a 58-61% win probability. With records equal and no ranking edge, the spread is the dominant input, so I anchor close to the implied number and shade slightly toward the middle to account for unavailable injury and efficiency data that could be driving the line in ways I cannot verify.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 10:53 AM PDTGemini · Purdue Boilermakers · 59.0%
Purdue is a 3-point home favorite against Washington, with both teams holding identical 3-3 records. A 3-point spread generally translates to a win probability of around 58-60% for the favorite, reflecting the home-field advantage in what is otherwise an evenly matched contest.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 10:53 AM PDTGrok · Purdue Boilermakers · 57.0%
Purdue hosts at Ross-Ade Stadium and is favored by a 3-point market spread while both teams enter with identical 3-3 records and no rankings. The narrow spread and home status supply the only comparative signal, producing a modest edge for the Boilermakers.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 10:53 AM PDTGPT · Purdue Boilermakers · 58.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Purdue is the slight favorite. Both teams have identical 3-3 records and neither is ranked, so the main comparative signal is the market line: DraftKings lists Purdue -3. The game is also at Ross-Ade Stadium, which aligns with Purdue’s home field. A 3-point home favorite in an otherwise even-looking matchup suggests Purdue wins modestly more often than not, but not by a wide margin.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 10:52 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, suspension, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, SP+, or strength-of-schedule metrics available
- No quality-of-opposition context behind the identical 3-3 records
- Single market provider with no line-movement history or opening number
- No head-to-head or recent-form (last 3 games) detail
- Weather and travel/short-week conditions for a Friday night game unknown
- No advanced statistics or efficiency metrics are provided.
- Injury reports and depth chart changes are unavailable.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
522b908de6a8f53929156b195d0b62e8186bf386ff3252156742f5288d026943 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
536a5c64b10d73dc89571a45d8f236f88b48326966e623056dc826af425cdd3d
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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