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Tennis · Oct 14, 4:05 AM PDT

Lanlana Tararudee vs Ashlyn Krueger

56.3%Lanlana Tararudee
LOCKED Oct 14, 12:00 AM PDT

4/4 independent models select Lanlana Tararudee; all four oriented probabilities average 56.25%.

YOUR RESEARCH TASK

Check the evidence

The most important gap and your next source check.

  1. Read the model reasons and reported limits.
  2. Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
  3. Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
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FORECASTLanlana Tararudee

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Gemini: Lanlana Tararudee's higher ranking (60 vs 68) and ranking points (1022 vs 962).
  • Grok: Tararudee current rank 60 exceeds Krueger rank 68
  • Claude: Ranks essentially adjacent: 60 vs 68; ranking points 1,022 vs 962
  • GPT: Tararudee has the better current rank: 60 vs 68.
Read all four model reports

Gemini · Lanlana Tararudee · 58.0%

Lanlana Tararudee holds a slight advantage in both current ranking (60 vs 68) and ranking points (1022 vs 962). Furthermore, Tararudee has a superior season win-loss record of 44-20 (68.8% win rate) compared to Krueger's 30-20 (60.0% win rate). While the rankings are relatively close, Tararudee's higher match volume and better win percentage give her the edge based on the available data.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

Grok · Lanlana Tararudee · 56.0%

Tararudee holds the superior current rank (60 vs 68), higher ranking points (1022 vs 962), and stronger season singles record (44-20 vs 30-20). These supplied facts indicate a modest edge. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable per the evidence_scope and are not used. The estimate remains evidence-bounded and conservative given the narrow gaps in rank and points.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

Claude · Lanlana Tararudee · 55.0%

The two players are nearly level on ranking (Tararudee No. 60 with 1,022 points vs Krueger No. 68 with 962 points), and both have improved slightly from their previous rank. The only differentiator in the supplied facts is season win-loss: Tararudee at 44-20 (68.8%) versus Krueger at 30-20 (60.0%), a modest edge, though Tararudee's larger match volume may reflect lower-tier events that the evidence does not specify. Neither has a title this season. With an 8-spot ranking gap and a ~9-point win-rate gap, a small lean to Tararudee is justified, but uncertainty is high. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

GPT · Lanlana Tararudee · 56.0%

Using only the supplied evidence, Lanlana Tararudee has a modest edge. She is ranked slightly higher than Ashlyn Krueger (No. 60 vs No. 68), has more ranking points (1022 vs 962), and owns the stronger 2026 singles record (44-20 vs 30-20), which implies both a higher win total and a better win percentage. Both players have improved from their previous rankings, so recent ranking movement does not clearly separate them. With the available evidence limited to current ranking and season record, Tararudee rates as a narrow favorite rather than a heavy one. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
  • The level of competition for the season records (e.g., WTA main draw vs ITF events) is not detailed.
  • Surface-specific form unavailable
  • Injuries unavailable
  • Head-to-head unavailable
  • Travel unavailable
  • Market odds unavailable
  • No head-to-head record supplied

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

  1. 1.0 percentage points higher for Lanlana Tararudee

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hash1b3a83878a27904d6181b7ebf4aaa55e01ddf2b29a90b8ad5b5934ae5362eda7
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hash19367906b653ad4e692749d399c01a5c97e513fa3ea8e2d9a8cfcc877ce8d30c

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Lanlana Tararudee. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 14, 12:00 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 11:55 PM PDT.

Current TORK56.3%
Simple average56.3%
Calibrated average56.8%
Kalshi47.0%
Comparison record

Saved Oct 14, 12:04 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

fee983dae5f229f68677254a0db8b5b1a6e290ab8caf2056a9c5cd6d22362229
Inspect the methods and progress →

Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: Ashlyn Krueger (USA) bt Lanlana Tararudee (THA) 2-6 6-1 6-1

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