Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 25, 1:05 PM PDT FORECASTDenver Broncos RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals
67.0%Denver Broncos
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Denver Broncos; all four oriented probabilities average 67%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Denver 4-2 vs Arizona 1-4 entering Week 7 — meaningful record gap
- Grok: Broncos 4-2 record versus Cardinals 1-4
- Gemini: Denver Broncos' 4-2 record
- GPT: Denver has the stronger record at 4-2.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Denver Broncos · 68.0%
The only usable comparative evidence is the records: Denver is 4-2 while Arizona is 1-4, a roughly three-game swing in winning percentage through six weeks. That points to Denver being the clearly stronger team to date. Arizona's home-field advantage (worth roughly 2-2.5 points, or several percentage points of win probability) partially offsets the gap but does not reverse it. With no market line, weather, or injury/QB information to refine the estimate, I anchor near the typical win probability for a modestly stronger road team against a struggling home team, which lands around two-thirds to 70%.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 15, 8:35 PM PDTGrok · Denver Broncos · 63.0%
Denver Broncos hold a 4-2 record while Arizona Cardinals are 1-4 entering week 7. The Broncos therefore carry the stronger season-long performance signal despite traveling to State Farm Stadium. No market line, quarterback, or injury data is supplied to refine the estimate further.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 15, 8:35 PM PDTGemini · Denver Broncos · 68.0%
The Denver Broncos have started the season strong with a 4-2 record, while the Arizona Cardinals have struggled significantly, posting a 1-4 record. Although Arizona has home-field advantage, Denver's superior performance thus far makes them the clear favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 15, 8:35 PM PDTGPT · Denver Broncos · 69.0%
The immutable package provides one clear comparative signal: Denver is 4-2 while Arizona is 1-4, and Arizona is at home. With no market line, weather, quarterback, or injury detail available, the records are the main basis for forecasting. A 4-2 team facing a 1-4 team would generally be favored even on the road, though home field prevents an extreme estimate. On the supplied evidence alone, Denver is the more likely winner.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 15, 8:35 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline or spread supplied, removing the strongest calibration anchor
- Injury lists are empty for both teams and quarterback status is unknown
- No weather data (though a retractable-roof stadium limits weather impact)
- No point differential, strength of schedule, or efficiency metrics provided
- Evidence snapshot is from Oct 16, over a week before kickoff; status could change
- No injury reports or quarterback status provided
- No betting market line or advanced metrics included
- Injury and availability details remain incomplete per source limitations
What to watch next
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
26f865aa89f87bb310daf02a6a3d62537975bbf0e3c002b8867ef4ff4153e3cd
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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