Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 9, 6:00 PM PDT FORECASTSan José State Spartans RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
San José State Spartans vs Wyoming Cowboys
64.3%San José State Spartans
LOCKED Oct 9, 5:31 PM PDT4/4 independent models select San José State Spartans; all four oriented probabilities average 64.25%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Market line SJSU -4.5 implies roughly a 63-67% home-favorite win probability
- Grok: Superior record (3-2 vs 2-3)
- Gemini: San José State is favored by 4.5 points.
- GPT: DraftKings lists San José State as a 4.5-point favorite
Read all four model reports
Claude · San José State Spartans · 65.0%
DraftKings lists San José State as a 4.5-point home favorite at CEFCU Stadium, which historically converts to roughly a 63-67% win probability for the favorite. The supporting facts align: SJSU holds the better record (3-2 vs 2-3) and holds home-field advantage, with neither team ranked. Absent injury or efficiency data to justify deviating from the market, I anchor near the line-implied figure at 65%.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 8, 7:38 AM PDTGrok · San José State Spartans · 63.0%
San José State holds a 3-2 record versus Wyoming's 2-3 and is the home team at CEFCU Stadium. The DraftKings market line lists SJSU as a 4.5-point favorite, supplying the primary comparative signal that the Spartans are the stronger side in this matchup.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 8, 7:38 AM PDTGemini · San José State Spartans · 65.0%
San José State is favored by 4.5 points at home and holds a slightly better record (3-2) than Wyoming (2-3). A 4.5-point spread typically translates to a win probability of approximately 65% in college football.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 8, 7:38 AM PDTGPT · San José State Spartans · 64.0%
San José State is the better-supported side in the supplied evidence package. The comparative signals are: a better record (3-2 vs 2-3), home field at CEFCU Stadium, and a market line of San José State -4.5 from DraftKings. Of these, the market line is the strongest single indicator and implies San José State is the favorite by more than a field goal. The records modestly reinforce that view, though both samples are small and no rankings are provided. With the available evidence, the most defensible estimate is that San José State wins somewhat more often than not, but not at an overwhelming rate.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 8, 7:38 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or opponent-quality context for the records
- Single-sportsbook line with no closing-line movement or market consensus
- No head-to-head history or recent form splits supplied
- Spread-to-win-probability conversion is an approximation, not a supplied figure
- No rankings or efficiency metrics supplied
- Injuries and depth unavailable
- Evidence limited to records, venue, and spread only
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 6.5 percentage points higher for San José State Spartans
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
29144fa78a1b973d0bb1c8de79e203f750c91b0557779d593f858b86b96d4c7e - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
a9e4f3fc01d81a4dc86ac49b8224aeacecaee3146b6bb344c961d29c2505483a
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final/OT
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