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Tennis · Oct 17, 4:40 AM PDT

Maja Chwalinska vs Iga Swiatek

72.3%Iga Swiatek
LOCKED Oct 17, 3:00 AM PDT

4/4 independent models select Iga Swiatek; all four oriented probabilities average 72.25%.

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A documented difference, its timing, and limits.

  1. Confirm every probability refers to the same outcome.
  2. Check the forecast lock and market observation times.
  3. Record the difference and what it does not establish.
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FORECASTIga Swiatek

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

21 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

  • Claude: Swiatek ranked 9 vs Chwalinska 22 (ESPN current)
  • Grok: Iga Swiatek current rank 9 versus Maja Chwalinska rank 22
  • Gemini: Iga Swiatek is ranked #9, while Maja Chwalinska is ranked #22.
  • GPT: Iga Swiatek holds the better current rank: No. 9 vs No. 22.
Read all four model reports

Claude · Iga Swiatek · 70.0%

Only ESPN ranking and season win-loss data are supplied. Swiatek is ranked 9 (3999 points) versus Chwalinska at 22 (2043 points), nearly double the ranking points, and holds a better season record (39-15, .722) than Chwalinska (33-17, .660), plus one title to none. A gap of 13 ranking places with roughly 2x points in a WTA semifinal typically implies a favorite probability in the high-60s to low-70s. Both players have reached the same round here, which modestly compresses the edge. Surface-specific form, injuries/fitness, head-to-head, travel/scheduling, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this evidence package, so no adjustment beyond rank and record is justified.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 9:55 PM PDT

Grok · Iga Swiatek · 80.0%

Based solely on supplied current ESPN ranking and season singles records, Iga Swiatek shows clear advantages with higher ranking (9 vs 22), substantially more ranking points (3999 vs 2043), superior win-loss record (39-15 vs 33-17), and one title versus zero. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 9:55 PM PDT

Gemini · Iga Swiatek · 72.0%

Iga Swiatek holds a significant advantage in both ranking and season performance. She is ranked 13 spots higher than Maja Chwalinska (9 vs 22) and has nearly double the ranking points (3999 vs 2043). Furthermore, Swiatek boasts a superior season win-loss record (39-15, 72.2%) compared to Chwalinska (33-17, 66.0%) and has secured a singles title this season, making her the clear favorite based on the available metrics.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 9:55 PM PDT

GPT · Iga Swiatek · 67.0%

Using only the supplied immutable evidence, Iga Swiatek is the stronger side based on the combination of better current rank and stronger season results. Swiatek is ranked No. 9 with 3,999 ranking points and a 39-15 singles record, while Maja Chwalinska is ranked No. 22 with 2,043 points and a 33-17 record. Both players have solid seasons and this is a semifinal, so the gap should not be treated as overwhelming, but Swiatek’s materially better ranking, nearly double the ranking points, and slightly better win-loss profile support making her the favorite. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package, so this estimate is based only on ranking and season record.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 9:55 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

  • Head-to-head record not supplied
  • Surface-specific (hard-court) form not supplied
  • Injury, fitness, and retirement status not supplied
  • Travel, rest days, and prior-round match loads not supplied
  • No market odds or implied probabilities available
  • No recent-match or momentum detail beyond season aggregates
  • Surface-specific form unavailable
  • Injuries not supplied

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

  1. Probability unchanged

    The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.

    Record hash419e1adcd1ca072bee1f8c754b418922ce30a72931844c762d8f16c553ae1609
  2. First recorded forecast

    First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.

    Record hash08fded72540dc56a8d5def4d4e2fa53108849b1419f5106c93b94a7a62127e8c

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Iga Swiatek. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 17, 3:00 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 17, 2:55 AM PDT.

Current TORK72.3%
Simple average72.3%
Calibrated average74.3%
Kalshi84.0%
Comparison record

Saved Oct 17, 3:00 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

5631c4cba2c393ee64cb446b062baf60e6a082890feb98449ed3fe46cbe2be0c
Inspect the methods and progress →

Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: (16) Maja Chwalinska (POL) bt (7) Iga Swiatek (POL) 7-5 6-1

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