Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 14, 1:20 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTJessica Pegula RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK78.0% Simple average78.0% Calibrated average80.6% Kalshi73.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Jessica Pegula vs Jelena Ostapenko
78.0%Jessica Pegula
LOCKED Oct 13, 10:30 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Jessica Pegula; all four oriented probabilities average 78%.
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- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
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20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Pegula current rank 4 versus Ostapenko rank 34
- Gemini: Jessica Pegula is ranked No. 4, while Jelena Ostapenko is ranked No. 34.
- Claude: Ranking gap: Pegula No. 4 (6,225 pts) vs Ostapenko No. 34 (1,527 pts)
- GPT: Pegula holds a much higher current ranking: No. 4 vs No. 34.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Jessica Pegula · 78.0%
Pegula holds rank 4 with 6225 points and a 50-13 season record versus Ostapenko at rank 34 with 1527 points and 23-20 record. The large gap in ranking, points, and win percentage supports a strong favorite designation for Pegula. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable per evidence scope.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTGemini · Jessica Pegula · 78.0%
Jessica Pegula holds a significant advantage in both current ranking and season performance. She is ranked No. 4 in the world with 6,225 points and an impressive 50-13 win-loss record (79.4% win rate) with 2 titles. In contrast, Jelena Ostapenko is ranked No. 34 with 1,527 points and a near-even 23-20 record (53.5% win rate). The substantial gap in ranking points and season consistency strongly favors Pegula.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTClaude · Jessica Pegula · 76.0%
Pegula holds a substantial edge on both supplied metrics: rank 4 (6,225 points) versus rank 34 (1,527 points), and a 50-13 season record (.794) with two titles versus Ostapenko's 23-20 (.535) with none. A roughly 30-place ranking gap plus a large win-rate differential typically maps to a 73-80% win probability for the higher-ranked player in a WTA Round 2 match. I shade slightly below the top of that band because Ostapenko is a high-variance, aggressive ball-striker historically capable of upsetting top-five players, and both players show small recent ranking slippage (3 to 4; 32 to 34). Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head, travel/fatigue, and market odds are explicitly not available in this evidence package, so this estimate rests solely on ranking and season win-loss data.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTGPT · Jessica Pegula · 80.0%
Jessica Pegula is the clear evidence-based favorite from the supplied package. The immutable evidence shows Pegula ranked No. 4 with 6,225 ranking points and a 50-13 season singles record, while Jelena Ostapenko is ranked No. 34 with 1,527 points and a 23-20 record. Both ranking and season record strongly favor Pegula, and Pegula also has two singles titles this season versus none for Ostapenko. Based only on those supplied facts, Pegula should win a substantial majority of the time. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable and therefore cannot adjust the estimate.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 13, 5:01 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Surface-specific form is unavailable.
- Player injuries are not supplied.
- Head-to-head records are unavailable.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.5 percentage points lower for Jessica Pegula
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
29e598d6b835e7d16d6bcf43017aed0f2e8285761f94c022feb8a92d1e2d7b76 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
c93a22f586314e63ec8c9209d995fb43358f1fb60b86b8725f761ef3a600ea13
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Jessica Pegula. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 13, 10:30 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 13, 10:25 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 13, 10:34 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
3c284889fbbcf449396dac4dc993515ac35eb3b3b00294ef47e71bbc9675dd60Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) bt (2) Jessica Pegula (USA) 2-6 7-6 (9-7) 6-3
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