Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 21, 5:15 PM PDT FORECASTLos Angeles Rams RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
New York Giants vs Los Angeles Rams
70.4%Los Angeles Rams
LOCKED Sep 21, 4:45 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Los Angeles Rams; all four oriented probabilities average 70.38%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line LAR -6.5 implies roughly 72-75% home win probability
- Gemini: Los Angeles Rams are favored by 6.5 points.
- Grok: LAR -6.5 home spread
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Los Angeles Rams -6.5
Read all four model reports
Claude · Los Angeles Rams · 73.0%
The DraftKings line of LAR -6.5 at home is the strongest available signal and implies the Rams are clear favorites. Historically, a 6.5-point home favorite wins roughly 72-75% of the time. Early-season records (NYG 1-0, LAR 0-1) are a single-game sample and carry far less information than the market price, which already incorporates roster quality, opponent strength, and any known availability news as of the data timestamp. Playing indoors at SoFi Stadium removes weather as a variable (weather field is null). No injury or quarterback details are supplied, which caps confidence but does not offset the market signal.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 20, 8:55 AM PDTGemini · Los Angeles Rams · 73.5%
The Los Angeles Rams are favored by 6.5 points at home against the New York Giants. A 6.5-point spread typically translates to an implied win probability of around 72-74%. Despite the Giants being 1-0 and the Rams 0-1, the betting market strongly favors the Rams at home.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 20, 8:55 AM PDTGrok · Los Angeles Rams · 67.0%
Rams host the Giants at SoFi Stadium and enter as 6.5-point favorites per the DraftKings market line. Home status plus the spread imply a clear edge despite the Giants' 1-0 record versus the Rams' 0-1 mark after week 1. No injury or quarterback data is supplied, limiting precision but not overturning the line-based assessment.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 20, 8:55 AM PDTGPT · Los Angeles Rams · 68.0%
The strongest comparative evidence in the package is the market line: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 at home. A spread of that size generally implies the Rams are the more likely winner by a clear margin, even though the Giants are 1-0 and the Rams are 0-1. Early-season records after one game carry limited signal, so the point spread is more informative than the raw records here. Home field also supports Los Angeles. With no usable quarterback, weather, or meaningful injury detail beyond empty lists, the best evidence-bounded estimate is that the Rams win a bit more than two-thirds of the time.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 20, 8:55 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline prices provided; probability derived from the point spread alone
- Injury lists are empty for both teams and may be incomplete before official game-status reports
- No quarterback or depth-chart information supplied
- Weather field is null; venue is indoors but conditions are unconfirmed in the package
- Only one market provider (DraftKings) quoted, with no line-movement history
- Single-game season records provide minimal comparative strength evidence
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring a spread-to-probability conversion.
- No injury information is available.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
86e9669bfc149311d18491a1a77cb0bd349dcb11d1744d98828a5426564bf2f3 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
117a12e471dc87ee348a668ea3645c9a04627fa39e11fae8b39f5fb196dc2545
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: New York Giants 6, Los Angeles Rams 28
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