Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 15, 1:05 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTAndrea Lazaro Garcia RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Nuria Brancaccio vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia
65.5%Andrea Lazaro Garcia
LOCKED Oct 15, 12:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Andrea Lazaro Garcia; all four oriented probabilities average 65.5%.
Review official results
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- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
- Record a lesson without treating one result as proof.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Andrea Lazaro Garcia's season record is 33 wins and 20 losses.
- Grok: Andrea Lazaro Garcia: WTA rank 143, 33-20 singles record
- Claude: Lazaro Garcia holds an explicit rank of 143 with 500 points; Brancaccio has no supplied rank
- GPT: Andrea Lazaro Garcia has the only explicit current ranking provided: No. 143.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Andrea Lazaro Garcia · 68.0%
Andrea Lazaro Garcia has a significantly better season win-loss record (33-20) compared to Nuria Brancaccio (25-26). Additionally, Lazaro Garcia holds a WTA ranking of 143, whereas Brancaccio is currently unranked in the provided data. This indicates a higher level of recent performance and consistency for Lazaro Garcia.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 14, 5:01 PM PDTGrok · Andrea Lazaro Garcia · 63.0%
Andrea Lazaro Garcia holds an explicit WTA ranking of 143 with a stronger 33-20 season record versus Nuria Brancaccio's null rank and 25-26 record. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence. The estimate uses only the supplied ranking and win-loss facts.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 14, 5:01 PM PDTClaude · Andrea Lazaro Garcia · 63.0%
Only two evidence dimensions are usable: ranking and season win-loss. Lazaro Garcia has an explicit rank of 143 (500 points, slipped from 137) and a winning season record of 33-20 (.623). Brancaccio has no supplied ranking and a sub-.500 record of 25-26 (.490), suggesting she sits lower in the ranking order or outside the listed pool. That combination of a concrete top-150 ranking plus a materially better match record points to a moderate edge for Lazaro Garcia, tempered by the unknown magnitude of the ranking gap and the fact that neither player has a title. Surface-specific form, injuries/fitness, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are explicitly unavailable in this package, so the estimate stays close to a modest favorite rather than a strong one.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 14, 5:01 PM PDTGPT · Andrea Lazaro Garcia · 68.0%
Andrea Lazaro Garcia is the stronger side on the supplied immutable evidence. She has an explicit current rank of No. 143, while Nuria Brancaccio has no current rank supplied in the package. Garcia also has the better 2026 singles record at 33-20 versus Brancaccio's 25-26, which indicates both higher volume and a clearly better win rate. With only ranking and season win-loss available, that combination points to Garcia as the more likely winner, though not overwhelmingly so because surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 14, 5:01 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries not supplied
- Head-to-head data absent
- Travel factors not provided
- Market odds unavailable
- Surface-specific form not supplied
- Injury and fitness status not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.8 percentage points higher for Andrea Lazaro Garcia
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
20acfc61ced10cd463933a361f107f88080fc64e97c272f92d2357da3c755d8a - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
e3724dbd193ace05516743e20b5939e6dcd7c834ff805f8a84f0a4660202c5bb
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (5) Andrea Lazaro Garcia (ESP) bt Nuria Brancaccio (ITA) 6-7 (1-7) 7-5 6-4
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