Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsMMA · Oct 31, 2:00 PM PDT FORECASTAzamat Bekoev RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Azamat Bekoev vs Andre Petroski
57.8%Azamat Bekoev
NOT LOCKEDAll four probabilities, converted to the same fighter, average 57.75% for Azamat Bekoev. 4/4 models select this fighter.
12 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Bekoev power and finishing rate vs Petroski recent KO losses
- Gemini: Bekoev's high finishing rate and early-fight danger (10 first-round finishes).
- Grok: Bekoev higher striking volume and finish rate
- GPT: Bekoev has the higher striking volume: 4.57 landed per minute vs 2.75 for Petroski.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Azamat Bekoev · 56.0%
Bekoev brings far more power and output (4.57 strikes/min, 16 finishes) against a 35-year-old Petroski who has lost three straight, two by early TKO, and whose low takedown accuracy (15%) limits his grappling path. Bekoev's porous defense keeps it close.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGemini · Azamat Bekoev · 62.0%
Azamat Bekoev enters this matchup as the younger fighter with a significantly higher finishing rate, boasting 16 career finishes (8 KOs, 8 submissions) and 10 first-round stoppages. While both men are on losing streaks, Andre Petroski's recent form is particularly concerning, having suffered back-to-back TKO losses. Petroski is a capable grappler, but his low takedown accuracy (15%) may make it difficult to ground Bekoev consistently. Bekoev's striking defense is a glaring weakness (31% defense, absorbing 6.83 strikes per minute), which keeps the matchup competitive, but Petroski's recent durability issues and lower striking volume make him vulnerable to Bekoev's early power. The late addition of this bout (15 days prior to the event) introduces cardio variables that typically favor the younger, more explosive fighter.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGrok · Azamat Bekoev · 56.0%
Bekoev holds a superior 20-5 record versus Petroski's 13-7 and shows markedly higher striking output (4.57 vs 2.75 landed per minute) plus far more first-round finishes. Both fighters post comparable takedown volume, yet Bekoev's recent wins include two first-round stoppages while Petroski's recent victories are decisions. The bout addition 15 days prior supplies no fighter-specific adjustment. Sparse direct comparative data and both fighters' recent losses keep the edge modest.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGPT · Azamat Bekoev · 57.0%
Bekoev gets the lean on the stronger offensive output and the slightly better recent top-end wins, but this is a close, uncertain matchup because both men enter off losses and the verified late-context shows this bout was only added about 15 days before the event. Bekoev lands far more volume (4.57 vs 2.75 sig. strikes landed per minute) and has shown more one-shot finishing upside recently with first-round stoppages of Zachary Reese and Ryan Loder. Petroski, however, has much cleaner defensive metrics on paper, especially lower strike absorption (2.99 vs 6.83) and much better takedown defense (86% vs 63), plus a higher submission rate. That creates a real path if he can slow the fight and force grappling exchanges. Still, Petroski is on a three-fight skid, including back-to-back TKO losses, while Bekoev's recent setbacks came after a stronger two-fight UFC surge. The short-notice bout-
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No licensed pre-event odds supplied
- Reach and stance data missing for both fighters
- Only late_context item is bout added about 15 days out; no weigh-in, camp, or injury verification
- Missing reach and stance data for both fighters, which obscures potential striking range dynamics.
- Lack of licensed pre-event odds removes a valuable market consensus anchor.
- The short-notice nature of the bout makes it difficult to gauge either fighter's conditioning and camp preparation.
- No head-to-head history available
- Reach and stance data absent for both
What to watch next
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
954d3b8b1d0682f1c89e751c1e96e0b06ac965873cb68ea0290ca9011157b1c4
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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