Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 13, 1:25 PM PDT FORECASTLas Vegas Raiders RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders
58.6%Las Vegas Raiders
LOCKED Sep 13, 12:55 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Las Vegas Raiders; all four oriented probabilities average 58.63%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Las Vegas Raiders are favored by 3 points at home
- Grok: LV listed as 3-point home favorite on DraftKings
- Claude: Market line LV -3 implies roughly 58-60% home win probability
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Las Vegas Raiders -3
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Las Vegas Raiders · 59.5%
The Las Vegas Raiders are 3-point home favorites against the Miami Dolphins. In the NFL, a -3 spread typically implies a win probability of approximately 59-60%. The relatively low total of 40.5 suggests a lower-scoring game where a 3-point advantage is significant.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 10, 1:36 PM PDTGrok · Las Vegas Raiders · 58.0%
Week 1 matchup with both teams at 0-0 records and empty injury lists. The only comparative evidence is the DraftKings market line listing LV as a 3-point home favorite. In NFL regular-season games a 3-point home favorite typically carries a 57-60% implied win probability; 58% is selected as the evidence-bounded central estimate.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 10, 1:36 PM PDTClaude · Las Vegas Raiders · 59.0%
The only differentiating evidence is the DraftKings line: Las Vegas -3 at home in Week 1, with both teams 0-0 and no injury data supplied. A 3-point home favorite historically converts to roughly a 57-60% win probability; the low total (40.5) slightly compresses variance and marginally favors the favorite. With no record, roster, or quarterback information to adjust from the market, I anchor close to the line-implied estimate and shade only modestly.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 10, 1:36 PM PDTGPT · Las Vegas Raiders · 58.0%
The strongest usable comparative evidence in this package is the market line: Las Vegas is a 3-point home favorite. In a Week 1 game with both teams 0-0 and no supplied team-strength, quarterback, or injury differentiation, the point spread is the best evidence-bounded signal of expected win likelihood. A home favorite of -3 is typically a modest, not overwhelming, edge, so Las Vegas should be favored but well short of certainty.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 10, 1:36 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring derivation from the spread
- No injury reports are available
- Week 1 game lacks current season performance data
- No team records, prior-season results, or quarterback information supplied
- Injury reports listed as empty and noted as potentially incomplete
- Market line is the sole comparative signal; no supporting advanced metrics
- No moneyline prices provided; probability inferred from spread only
- Injury lists empty for both teams and likely incomplete pre-official reports
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
04a0241ca69f7db1148a61bdddaf5e3836c59ef4931e95e9acb83249e82fe04a - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
2e461a83044906b98cd96a7b759ac5138ccdd27d7edaa2489ad586be284c4c85
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Miami Dolphins 13, Las Vegas Raiders 27
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