Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 12:30 PM PDT FORECASTKansas State Wildcats RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Kansas State Wildcats vs Houston Cougars
55.9%Kansas State Wildcats
LOCKED Oct 10, 12:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Kansas State Wildcats; all four oriented probabilities average 55.88%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Kansas State is favored by 2.5 points in the betting market.
- Claude: Market line KSU -2.5 implies a modest home favorite (~56-59% win probability)
- Grok: Home venue for Kansas State
- GPT: DraftKings lists Kansas State as a 2.5-point favorite, indicating Kansas State is more likely than not to win
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Kansas State Wildcats · 57.5%
Kansas State is favored by 2.5 points at home despite Houston having a slightly better record and a top-25 ranking. The market line implies a win probability of roughly 57-58% for the Wildcats, reflecting home-field advantage and likely stronger underlying metrics not captured by simple win-loss records.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 7, 5:08 PM PDTClaude · Kansas State Wildcats · 57.0%
The supplied DraftKings line of KSU -2.5 at home (Bill Snyder Family Stadium) is the strongest comparative signal. A 2.5-point favorite historically converts to roughly a 56-59% win probability in college football, given the key-number structure around 3. Houston carries the better record (4-1 vs 3-1) and the only ranking (No. 22), which argues against inflating the Wildcats' edge beyond what the market implies; the market already prices those facts plus home-field advantage. I therefore anchor essentially on the line with no meaningful adjustment.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 7, 5:07 PM PDTGrok · Kansas State Wildcats · 54.0%
Kansas State hosts Houston at Bill Snyder Family Stadium and is a 2.5-point favorite per the DraftKings line. KSU enters at 3-1 while Houston is 4-1 and ranked 22nd; the home status and market line together supply the comparative edge despite Houston's superior record and ranking.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 7, 5:07 PM PDTGPT · Kansas State Wildcats · 55.0%
Kansas State is the narrow favorite based on the supplied market line and home venue. The strongest comparative signal in the evidence package is DraftKings listing Kansas State -2.5 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, which implies a modest edge for Kansas State despite Houston having the better record (4-1 vs 3-1) and the only supplied ranking (#22). Those Houston indicators pull the game closer, but the market line is the clearest synthesized expectation in the package, so the best evidence-bounded estimate is a small Kansas State win probability.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 7, 5:07 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Missing advanced efficiency metrics (e.g., SP+, FPI) to compare true team strength.
- No injury information or depth chart updates are provided.
- Weather conditions and other situational factors are unknown.
- No injury, availability, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or opponent-quality context for either record
- Single sportsbook line with no closing-line movement or market consensus
- No weather, travel, or rest-differential data
- Rankings provided for only one team
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
133b364e7de38cae76b46cb069bf0c5a6163889b8db6fc131750b4877cf30d1c - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
ad3735214d375ca7e02e3707ee9a671ec2c6dbfdf96c12b78a33183fb1d8f7b8
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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