Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 12:30 PM PDT FORECASTWyoming Cowboys RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Wyoming Cowboys vs Northern Illinois Huskies
72.4%Wyoming Cowboys
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Wyoming Cowboys; all four oriented probabilities average 72.38%.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line WYO -7.5 implies roughly a 75-79% home win probability
- Grok: Wyoming record 3-3 vs Northern Illinois 0-5
- Gemini: Wyoming is a 7.5-point favorite in the betting market.
- GPT: Wyoming has the better record: 3-3 versus Northern Illinois at 0-5.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Wyoming Cowboys · 77.0%
Wyoming is the home favorite at -7.5 (DraftKings), which historically converts to roughly a 75-79% moneyline win probability for a touchdown-plus home favorite in a low-total (42.5) game. Supporting signals align: Wyoming is 3-3 while Northern Illinois is winless at 0-5, and the game is at War Memorial Stadium in Laramie, a high-altitude venue that typically adds a modest home edge. Neither team is ranked, so the market line and records are the primary comparative evidence. A low total slightly compresses scoring variance in favor of the favorite, but college football single-game variance and unknown injury/personnel status keep this well short of a near-certain outcome.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTGrok · Wyoming Cowboys · 67.0%
Wyoming enters at 3-3 while Northern Illinois is 0-5. The market line lists Wyoming as a 7.5-point home favorite at War Memorial Stadium. These two comparative signals (record and spread) both point to Wyoming as the stronger side on the date of the game. No rankings are supplied for either team.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTGemini · Wyoming Cowboys · 73.5%
Wyoming is favored by 7.5 points at home against a winless Northern Illinois team (0-5). A 7.5-point spread in college football typically translates to a win probability of approximately 73-75%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTGPT · Wyoming Cowboys · 72.0%
Wyoming is the stronger side in the immutable evidence package. The supplied records favor Wyoming (3-3 vs 0-5), the game is at War Memorial Stadium for Wyoming, and the market line lists Wyoming as a 7.5-point favorite. With no rankings for either team, the main comparative signals are record, home venue, and especially the market spread, which generally implies Wyoming is more likely than not to win by a meaningful margin. A 7.5-point home favorite in college football typically corresponds to a clear but not overwhelming win probability, so an estimate in the low 70s is evidence-bounded.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 9:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, depth-chart, or availability information provided
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or opponent-adjusted metrics
- Records lack context (quality of opponents, margin of victory/defeat)
- Single market snapshot at 16:08Z; no line movement history or closing line
- No moneyline price supplied, so win probability is inferred from the spread
- No weather information for an October game in Laramie
- No team efficiency or advanced metrics supplied
- Injury and depth-chart data unavailable
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
9db95adec867b1b227f07d3c2dfe867ab13f6cb22f4ae13d6d5b975ebfac196a
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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