Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 12:30 PM PDT FORECASTDuke Blue Devils RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Duke Blue Devils vs North Carolina Tar Heels
59.0%Duke Blue Devils
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Duke Blue Devils; all four oriented probabilities average 59%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Duke is favored by 3 points in the betting market
- Claude: DraftKings line of Duke -3 implies approximately 59-61% win probability
- Grok: Duke 4-1 record vs UNC 3-2 record
- GPT: DraftKings lists Duke as a 3-point favorite (DUKE -3)
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Duke Blue Devils · 59.0%
Duke is a 3-point home favorite with a 4-1 record compared to North Carolina's 3-2 record. A 3-point spread in college football typically implies a win probability of around 58-61% for the favorite.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTClaude · Duke Blue Devils · 60.0%
The only comparative signals are the DraftKings line (Duke -3 at home in Wallace Wade Stadium) and records (Duke 4-1 vs North Carolina 3-2). A 3-point home favorite historically converts to roughly a 58-62% win probability, and the slightly better record plus home field are directionally consistent with that market pricing. Neither team is ranked, so no additional separation is available. I anchor on the market-implied figure at 60% without adjustment, since no injury, efficiency, or situational data is supplied to justify deviating from the line.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGrok · Duke Blue Devils · 58.0%
Duke enters with the superior 4-1 record versus North Carolina's 3-2. The game is at Duke's home venue (Wallace Wade Stadium) and DraftKings lists Duke as a 3-point favorite. These three structured facts together indicate a modest home-edge advantage for Duke. No rankings are supplied for either team.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTGPT · Duke Blue Devils · 59.0%
Duke is the best evidence-bounded pick based on the supplied comparative signals: a better record (4-1 vs 3-2), home field at Wallace Wade Stadium, and the strongest indicator in the package, a DraftKings line of Duke -3. A 3-point home favorite in a college football game typically implies a modest but real edge rather than a dominant one, so the win probability should be above 50% but not overwhelmingly high. With no rankings provided and no injury or efficiency data available, the estimate should stay conservative.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 5:07 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced team efficiency metrics are provided
- Injury reports and depth-chart changes are unavailable
- Weather conditions and recent team form are not included in the evidence package
- No injury or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency, SP+, or strength-of-schedule metrics
- No head-to-head or recent-form detail beyond win-loss records
- Opponent quality behind each record is unknown
- Line is a single-provider snapshot dated roughly a day before kickoff; no line movement history
What to watch next
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- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
45264b47f14d21e8fa8bb396e6e5af0383c1cd9a183b48233da0a1fc589bac79
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
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