Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 5:10 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTJames Madison Dukes RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Georgia Southern Eagles vs James Madison Dukes
72.5%James Madison Dukes
LOCKED Oct 10, 4:01 PM PDT4/4 independent models select James Madison Dukes; all four oriented probabilities average 72.5%.
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16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
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Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: JMU 5-0 record versus Georgia Southern 2-3
- Gemini: James Madison's undefeated 5-0 record
- Claude: Market line JMU -7.5 implies ~73-76% win probability
- GPT: James Madison is 5-0 while Georgia Southern is 2-3.
Read all four model reports
Grok · James Madison Dukes · 70.0%
James Madison enters at 5-0 while Georgia Southern is 2-3. The market line lists JMU as a 7.5-point road favorite at Georgia Southern's home venue, supplying the primary comparative signal that the Dukes are the stronger side. No rankings are available to refine the assessment. The 7.5-point spread implies a solid but not overwhelming edge for the favorite once home-field adjustment is considered.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGemini · James Madison Dukes · 74.0%
James Madison enters the game undefeated at 5-0 and is favored by 7.5 points on the road against a 2-3 Georgia Southern team. The market line strongly suggests James Madison is the superior team and has a high probability of winning despite playing away from home.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTClaude · James Madison Dukes · 74.0%
DraftKings lists JMU -7.5 on the road, implying roughly a 73-76% win probability for a favorite of that size in college football. The supporting fundamentals align: JMU is 5-0 while Georgia Southern is 2-3, and the market already prices in Georgia Southern's home-field advantage at Paulson Stadium (meaning JMU is roughly 10 points better on a neutral field). No ranking, injury, or efficiency data is supplied to justify deviating from the market-implied figure.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGPT · James Madison Dukes · 72.0%
James Madison has the stronger immutable evidence profile: a 5-0 record versus Georgia Southern at 2-3, plus a market line of JMU -7.5. Those are aligned comparative signals favoring James Madison, even with Georgia Southern at home. A 7.5-point road favorite in college football generally implies a clear but not overwhelming edge, and the undefeated-versus-losing record split reinforces that. Home field for Georgia Southern tempers the estimate somewhat, so the forecast is not pushed into a very high range.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Advanced team efficiency metrics unavailable
- Injury and depth-chart data unavailable
- No historical head-to-head or travel factors supplied
- No advanced team efficiency metrics provided
- No injury reports or depth-chart changes available
- Weather conditions and other situational factors are unknown
- No injury or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or scoring margin data
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.5 percentage points lower for James Madison Dukes
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
8574602ff585ec9b50f835306cdda609f16c8cf3a3b841e1e453911661ac7d55 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
a1d2542939f0bc50d00d77b3b623db9f2f82bb18fcd9e0166f5374f5454c79f0
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Final
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