Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 27, 10:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTJacksonville Jaguars RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
New England Patriots vs Jacksonville Jaguars
58.6%Jacksonville Jaguars
LOCKED Sep 27, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Jacksonville Jaguars; all four oriented probabilities average 58.63%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
15 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line JAX -3 marks Jacksonville as a modest home favorite
- Gemini: Jacksonville is playing at home at EverBank Stadium.
- Grok: Jacksonville home game at EverBank Stadium
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Jacksonville -3, making the Jaguars the only evidence-backed favorite in the package.
Read all four model reports
Claude · Jacksonville Jaguars · 58.0%
The only differentiating evidence is the DraftKings line of JAX -3 at home with a total of 46.5. Both teams enter 1-1, so records provide no edge. A 3-point home favorite in a moderate-total game historically converts to roughly a 57-59% win probability, and the standard home-field component accounts for much of that margin. With no injury or quarterback-availability information supplied and no weather data, there is no basis to shade meaningfully away from the market-implied number, so I settle near the line-implied estimate for Jacksonville.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 24, 9:35 PM PDTGemini · Jacksonville Jaguars · 61.5%
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-point home favorites against the New England Patriots. Both teams enter Week 3 with 1-1 records. A 3-point spread for a home team typically translates to a win probability of approximately 60-62% in the NFL.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 24, 9:35 PM PDTGrok · Jacksonville Jaguars · 57.0%
Both teams enter at 1-1 with no injury or roster details supplied. Jacksonville hosts at EverBank Stadium and is listed as a 3-point favorite on the DraftKings market line. In the absence of any other comparative metrics, the home status plus the spread implies a modest edge for the Jaguars, calibrated to a 57% win probability.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 24, 9:35 PM PDTGPT · Jacksonville Jaguars · 58.0%
Jacksonville is the home team and the supplied market evidence lists the Jaguars as 3-point favorites (JAX -3). With both teams entering at identical 1-1 records, the market spread is the strongest comparative signal in the package and indicates Jacksonville is more likely than New England to win outright. A 3-point home favorite is typically a modest, not overwhelming, edge, so the estimate is above 50% but well short of a heavy favorite range.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 24, 9:35 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline prices supplied; probability derived from the spread alone
- Injury lists for both teams are empty, likely incomplete before official game-status reports
- No quarterback or depth-chart information provided
- Weather data is null for an early-season Florida kickoff
- No advanced team metrics, scoring margins, or prior-result detail beyond 1-1 records
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring the win probability to be estimated from the point spread.
- No injury information is available for either team.
- It is early in the season (Week 3), meaning team strength and performance metrics are still uncertain.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
f824adfca3cc6c9387c02da103980ea185262f27fd270c62613a994c3625e741 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
f4cb5ed120a3e5446036b6c3c1a913684f7c8e07c9bc18a9f207352d37a83132
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: New England Patriots 6, Jacksonville Jaguars 35
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