Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 15, 4:25 AM PDT FORECASTIga Swiatek RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK81.8% Simple average81.8% Calibrated average84.7% Kalshi91.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Iga Swiatek vs Ashlyn Krueger
81.8%Iga Swiatek
LOCKED Oct 15, 3:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Iga Swiatek; all four oriented probabilities average 81.75%.
22 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: Swiatek current rank 9 vs Krueger rank 68
- Gemini: Swiatek's superior ranking (9 vs 68)
- Claude: Ranking gap: No. 9 vs No. 68 (3,999 vs 962 points)
- GPT: Ranking advantage: Iga Swiatek is ranked 9th versus Ashlyn Krueger at 68th.
Read all four model reports
Grok · Iga Swiatek · 82.0%
Swiatek holds rank 9 with 3999 points and a 39-15 record versus Krueger at rank 68 with 962 points and 30-20 record. This ranking and season win-loss gap supports a high probability for Swiatek. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as not supplied in evidence.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTGemini · Iga Swiatek · 82.0%
Iga Swiatek is ranked significantly higher at No. 9 compared to Ashlyn Krueger at No. 68, with over four times the ranking points (3999 vs 962). Swiatek also boasts a superior season win rate of 72.2% (39-15) compared to Krueger's 60.0% (30-20), making her the clear favorite based on the provided metrics.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTClaude · Iga Swiatek · 81.0%
Swiatek is ranked No. 9 with 3,999 points versus Krueger's No. 68 with 962 points, a gap of roughly 60 ranking places and over 4x the points. Season records also favor Swiatek (39-15, .722, one title) over Krueger (30-20, .600, no titles). Historical WTA base rates for a top-10 seed against a player outside the top 60 in an early hard-court round put the favorite around 78-85%. Swiatek's 2026 record is somewhat below her elite peak and Krueger is trending upward (73 to 68), which caps confidence modestly. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling load, and market odds are not supplied in the evidence package and were not used.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTGPT · Iga Swiatek · 82.0%
Iga Swiatek is the clear favorite on the immutable evidence provided. The supplied facts show a large ranking gap (Swiatek No. 9 vs Krueger No. 68), a much larger ranking-points total (3999 vs 962), and the stronger season record (39-15 vs 30-20). Swiatek also has one singles title this season while Krueger has none. Those indicators collectively point to Swiatek as substantially more likely to win, though not overwhelmingly certain because the evidence package does not include surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, or market odds.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 14, 5:02 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries unavailable
- Head-to-head unavailable
- Travel unavailable
- Market odds unavailable
- Surface form is unavailable
- Injuries are unavailable
- Head-to-head records are unavailable
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 2.0 percentage points lower for Iga Swiatek
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
ec28cd5b8de5103697588a101118555ab27c9afd27f38cc74757a09114b979d1 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
ab574fb93ad46e7338557714cf73458aa9f8f4b1d9b1fd0e5b1b56bc8dad7a29
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Iga Swiatek. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 15, 3:30 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 15, 3:25 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 15, 3:34 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
7f31afa0d80769beecfa0b8ab18f82f0c5839d50fd15673426186dd0ccbbbecdAvailable source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (7) Iga Swiatek (POL) bt Ashlyn Krueger (USA) 6-1 6-4
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