Tennis · Oct 18, 9:00 PM PDT

Himeno Sakatsume vs Katie Boulter

69.5%Katie Boulter

NOT LOCKED

4/4 independent models select Katie Boulter; all four oriented probabilities average 69.5%.

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FORECASTKatie Boulter

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

Grok: Boulter current rank 54 vs Sakatsume 115
Gemini: Katie Boulter's higher ranking (54 vs 115)
Claude: Boulter ranked 54 vs Sakatsume 115 (61-place gap)
GPT: Boulter's current rank is 54 compared with Sakatsume's 115.

Read all four model reports

Grok · Katie Boulter · 72.0%

Katie Boulter holds the superior current rank (54 vs 115), higher ranking points (1062 vs 665), and a documented 22-19 singles record with one title, while Himeno Sakatsume's win-loss record is null. These supplied ranking and record facts indicate Boulter as the stronger player. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence package.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 5:00 AM PDT

Gemini · Katie Boulter · 68.0%

Katie Boulter is ranked significantly higher at 54 compared to Himeno Sakatsume at 115, with nearly double the ranking points (1062 vs 665). Boulter also has a solid season record with 22 wins and a title. While Sakatsume is playing in her home country, Boulter's superior ranking and proven tour-level success make her the favorite. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 5:00 AM PDT

Claude · Katie Boulter · 66.0%

Boulter is ranked No. 54 with 1,062 ranking points versus Sakatsume at No. 115 with 665 points, a gap of roughly 60 ranking places that historically converts to about a 63-70% win probability for the higher-ranked player in a WTA opening round. Boulter also has a documented 2026 record of 22-19 with one title, while Sakatsume's win-loss and title data are not supplied, limiting the comparison. A modest discount is applied because Sakatsume is playing at home in Osaka and Boulter's sub-.550 season record suggests she is not dominating at her ranking level. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package, so the estimate rests on ranking and one season record alone.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 5:00 AM PDT

GPT · Katie Boulter · 72.0%

Katie Boulter is the stronger choice from the supplied evidence package. The usable comparative facts are current ranking and, for Boulter only, season singles record. Boulter is ranked No. 54 versus Sakatsume at No. 115, a substantial ranking gap, and also has 1,062 ranking points versus 665. Both players improved slightly from their previous rankings, so recent ranking direction does not separate them much. Boulter also has a provided 2026 singles record of 22-19 and one title, while Sakatsume's season win-loss record is not supplied, which limits direct form comparison. Based only on the immutable evidence, the ranking and points gap make Boulter a clear but not overwhelming favorite. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 5:00 AM PDT

What remains uncertain

Surface-specific form unavailable
Injuries unavailable
Head-to-head unavailable
Travel unavailable
Market odds unavailable
Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable
Himeno Sakatsume's season win-loss record is not provided
Injury and fitness status unavailable

What to watch next

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What changed before the lock

Oct 17, 5:01 AM PDT · house adjudication completedFirst recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
dd128d7e588b81a2046d56876b14484df4edadcd115cfa8d895731de5e4dc3bf

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

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