Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 9:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTArmy Black Knights RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Army Black Knights vs Florida Atlantic Owls
56.9%Army Black Knights
LOCKED Oct 17, 8:32 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Army Black Knights; all four oriented probabilities average 56.88%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Army is favored by 2.5 points.
- Grok: Army home venue at Michie Stadium
- Claude: DraftKings line ARMY -2.5 implies roughly 57-60% win probability for Army
- GPT: DraftKings market line favors Army by 2.5 points
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Army Black Knights · 57.5%
Army is a slight 2.5-point home favorite against Florida Atlantic. Despite FAU having a slightly better record (4-1 vs 3-2), the market favors Army at Michie Stadium, translating to roughly a 57-58% implied win probability.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 12, 5:53 AM PDTGrok · Army Black Knights · 56.0%
Army enters at 3-2 and hosts at Michie Stadium while favored by 2.5 points on the market line. FAU is 4-1 but the neutral venue-adjusted line and home-field edge give Army the modest edge in a low-information environment.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 12, 5:53 AM PDTClaude · Army Black Knights · 58.0%
The only direct comparative signal is the DraftKings line of Army -2.5 at home in Michie Stadium. A 2.5-point favorite historically wins roughly 57-60% of the time in college football, with the hook pushing it slightly above the field-goal-equivalent baseline. Records modestly favor FAU (4-1 vs 3-2), which is already embedded in the market price and tempers any upward adjustment; neither team is ranked. Army's home-field advantage in a service-academy environment and the market's implied edge support a narrow lean, but the small margin means this is close to a coin flip with a slight tilt.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 12, 5:53 AM PDTGPT · Army Black Knights · 56.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Army gets the nod primarily because the market line lists Army -2.5 and the game is at Michie Stadium. That indicates Army is viewed as a small favorite on its home field. Florida Atlantic has the better record in the package (4-1 vs 3-2), which pulls the estimate down and keeps this close, but the market signal is the strongest comparative input provided. With no rankings and no player-availability or efficiency data, the best evidence-bounded estimate is a narrow Army edge.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 12, 5:52 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced efficiency metrics or SP+ rankings are provided.
- Injury reports and depth chart changes are missing.
- Weather conditions at Michie Stadium are unknown.
- No advanced efficiency or pace metrics available
- Injury and depth-chart data absent
- Opponent strength not detailed in source facts
- Evidence limited to scoreboard records, line, and venue
- No injury or depth-chart information supplied
What to watch next
Wait for the official result. The locked forecast stays unchanged.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.6 percentage points higher for Army Black Knights
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
7e0102dc363d4257a799a38721d7b2fbb272cf56e2002ab36682a9557304a5a3 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
33c6a52d99d36ee93a9c8b2eae1a8e73f31dc6fcd1ac3760fa2baf89a33a66f6
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
No direct source links are attached to this brief. The event page shows the available context.
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
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