Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 1:40 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTAlexander Zverev RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK79.5% Simple average79.5% Calibrated average82.3% Kalshi79.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alexander Zverev
79.5%Alexander Zverev
LOCKED Oct 17, 1:00 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Alexander Zverev; all four oriented probabilities average 79.5%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
20 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Alexander Zverev is ranked #2 with 9720 ranking points.
- Claude: Ranking gap: No. 2 (9,720 pts) vs No. 26 (1,930 pts)
- Grok: Zverev rank 2 vs Fokina rank 26
- GPT: Zverev holds a major ranking edge: No. 2 vs No. 26.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Alexander Zverev · 82.0%
Alexander Zverev holds a significant advantage in both ranking and season performance. Ranked #2 with 9720 points and a 58-15 record, he vastly outperforms Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who is ranked #26 with 1930 points and a 27-16 record. Without surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds, Zverev is the clear statistical favorite based on the provided evidence.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 8:05 PM PDTClaude · Alexander Zverev · 75.0%
Zverev is the clear favorite on the supplied facts: ATP No. 2 (9,720 points) versus No. 26 (1,930 points), and a markedly better season record (58-15, .795) than Davidovich Fokina (27-16, .628). Elo-style translations of a 24-place ranking gap plus the win-rate differential typically imply roughly a 73-80% win probability for the higher-ranked player in a best-of-three Masters semifinal. Davidovich Fokina's run to the last four shows he is playing well enough to make it competitive, and hard-court indoor/outdoor specifics are unknown, so I shade slightly toward the middle of that band. Surface-specific form, injury/fitness status, head-to-head history, travel/scheduling load, and market odds are all unavailable in this evidence package.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 8:05 PM PDTGrok · Alexander Zverev · 78.0%
Alexander Zverev is ranked 2 with a 58-15 season record compared to Davidovich Fokina's rank 26 and 27-16 record. This large gap in ranking and wins supports a strong favorite status in a Masters semifinal. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as they are not supplied in the evidence.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 8:05 PM PDTGPT · Alexander Zverev · 83.0%
Using only the supplied immutable evidence, Alexander Zverev is the clear favorite. He is ranked No. 2 versus Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at No. 26, and his season record is far stronger at 58-15 compared with 27-16. That gives Zverev both a much higher ranking position and a substantially better season win profile entering this semifinal. Because the evidence package limits us to current ranking and season singles record only, this estimate cannot account for matchup-specific factors. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable here.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 8:05 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form is unavailable.
- Injury reports are not supplied.
- Head-to-head records are absent.
- Travel fatigue and market odds are unavailable.
- No surface-specific or recent-form splits supplied
- No injury or fitness information
- No head-to-head record available
- No travel, rest, or scheduling data
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 1.0 percentage points lower for Alexander Zverev
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
7d98bfc057edcfff80e55a253098c5a78dd196650b3de5e6cbce5e69fd9d41f1 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
eeef749eaf225c21b5aaca1d0e4377f4b7fc7f783191f8152d2c5051b2e065d4
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Alexander Zverev. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 17, 1:00 AM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 17, 12:55 AM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 17, 1:00 AM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
0d427f844377ee4acaf0335128e7033149029c2153bd34d9d53afcb76fe1623cAvailable source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (25) Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (ESP) bt (1) Alexander Zverev (GER) 5-7 6-4 6-3
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Return to your review →