Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 18, 5:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTClement Chidekh RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Gauthier Onclin vs Clement Chidekh
65.0%Clement Chidekh
NOT LOCKED4/4 independent models select Clement Chidekh; all four oriented probabilities average 65%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Clement Chidekh is ranked 146th in the world.
- Claude: Chidekh has an explicit current rank of 146 (387 points); Onclin's rank is null in the evidence
- Grok: Chidekh ATP rank 146 with 387 points vs Onclin null rank
- GPT: Clement Chidekh has the only explicit current rank provided: ATP No. 146.
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Clement Chidekh · 65.0%
Clement Chidekh holds an ATP ranking of 146, whereas Gauthier Onclin's ranking is unavailable. Although Onclin has a 1-2 season record compared to Chidekh's 0-0, Chidekh's established top-150 ranking suggests a higher baseline level of play. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 8:10 AM PDTClaude · Clement Chidekh · 60.0%
The only usable discriminating fact is ranking: Chidekh holds an explicit ATP rank of 146 with 387 points and a sharp recent improvement (from 177), while Onclin has no rank supplied and a modest 1-2 season singles record. A ranked tour-level qualifier with upward momentum is a modest favorite over an opponent with no listed ranking and a sub-.500 record, but the evidence is thin: Chidekh's 0-0 season record carries no information, and Onclin's missing rank may reflect data gaps rather than a genuinely low ranking. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all unavailable, so the estimate stays close to a coin flip with a modest tilt toward Chidekh.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 8:10 AM PDTGrok · Clement Chidekh · 68.0%
Clement Chidekh holds an explicit ATP ranking of 146 with 387 ranking points while Gauthier Onclin has null rank and ranking points. Onclin shows a 1-2 season singles record; Chidekh shows 0-0. These supplied ranking and record facts indicate Chidekh as the stronger player on current evidence. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 8:10 AM PDTGPT · Clement Chidekh · 67.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, Clement Chidekh has the clearly stronger documented baseline because he holds an explicit current ATP rank of 146, with an improvement from previous rank 177, while Gauthier Onclin has no current rank supplied in the package. The season records are thin and not directly comparable: Onclin is 1-2, while Chidekh is 0-0 in the supplied season sample, so that record evidence does not outweigh the ranking edge. Because this is a qualifying-final match and the evidence package excludes important contextual factors, the estimate should remain moderate rather than extreme. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 8:10 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Onclin's ranking is missing, making a direct ranking comparison impossible.
- Surface-specific form not supplied
- Injury/fitness status not supplied
- Head-to-head record not supplied
- Travel and scheduling/fatigue context not supplied
- Market odds not supplied
- Onclin's ranking is null, so the true ranking gap cannot be quantified
What to watch next
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Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
752f4870a8354f197a3d208cc630aa3b24a8a40209d555ebc74a402acc65845e
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
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