Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 17, 9:00 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTBowling Green Falcons RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Bowling Green Falcons vs Ball State Cardinals
67.5%Bowling Green Falcons
LOCKED Oct 17, 8:32 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Bowling Green Falcons; all four oriented probabilities average 67.5%.
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17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
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Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Bowling Green is a 6-point favorite
- Claude: Market line BGSU -6 at home implies ~70% win probability
- Grok: Bowling Green 2-4 record vs Ball State 1-5 record
- GPT: Market line favors Bowling Green by 6 points (BGSU -6)
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Bowling Green Falcons · 69.0%
Bowling Green is favored by 6 points at home against a 1-5 Ball State team. The market line implies a win probability of roughly 69% for the Falcons, supported by their home-field advantage and slightly better record.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 17, 8:08 AM PDTClaude · Bowling Green Falcons · 70.0%
DraftKings lists Bowling Green at -6 as the home team, which historically converts to roughly a 68-72% win probability for a mid-sized home favorite. The record comparison (2-4 vs 1-5) is weakly corroborating, as both teams are below .500 but Bowling Green has one more win. Playing at Doyt L. Perry Stadium adds the standard home-field component already embedded in the line. A modest total (46.5) implies a somewhat lower-scoring game, which slightly reduces variance and marginally favors the better side, so I anchor near the market-implied figure at 70%.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 17, 8:08 AM PDTGrok · Bowling Green Falcons · 64.0%
Bowling Green enters with a superior 2-4 record versus Ball State's 1-5. The game is at Bowling Green's home venue and the market line lists BGSU as a 6-point favorite. These factors together indicate Bowling Green is the stronger side and should win more often than not.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 17, 8:08 AM PDTGPT · Bowling Green Falcons · 67.0%
Bowling Green has the stronger record in the evidence package (2-4 vs 1-5), is playing at home at Doyt L. Perry Stadium, and is favored by the supplied market line at BGSU -6. The market spread is the strongest comparative signal provided, and a 6-point home favorite in a college football game generally implies a meaningful but not overwhelming win edge. With no rankings and no deeper team-quality or injury data in scope, the estimate should stay moderate rather than extreme.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 17, 8:08 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Missing advanced efficiency metrics
- No injury or depth chart information
- Weather conditions are unknown
- No injury or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, yardage, or turnover metrics provided
- No rankings for either team
- Single market provider and a single snapshot; no line movement history
- No strength-of-schedule context behind the records
What to watch next
Wait for the official result. The locked forecast stays unchanged.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 4.0 percentage points higher for Bowling Green Falcons
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
c72634b819ea673c1ae6c32427701f9f60b179e2dd725ca7428aee9233c7c4e2 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
a74297ce6ba1adcd366a32886485fa8e3f8cff5703159a99d90e5b8e3ba71245
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
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Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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