Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 3:05 AM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTDalma Galfi RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Dalma Galfi vs Leyre Romero Gormaz
75.5%Dalma Galfi
LOCKED Oct 17, 2:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Dalma Galfi; all four oriented probabilities average 75.5%.
Review official results
One lesson to investigate in future events.
- Read the original forecast before the outcome.
- Check the recorded official result and source context.
- Record a lesson without treating one result as proof.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: Galfi's listed rank (7) materially better than Romero Gormaz (139)
- Gemini: Dalma Galfi is ranked #7.
- GPT: Current ranking strongly favors Dalma Galfi: No. 7 vs No. 139.
- Grok: Current rank: Galfi 7 vs Romero Gormaz 139
Read all four model reports
Claude · Dalma Galfi · 61.0%
The only usable discriminators are ranking and a partial season record. Galfi carries the superior listed rank (7, likely an event seeding/ESPN rank field rather than a true WTA position) versus Romero Gormaz at 139 (up from 146, 516 points), which implies Galfi is the stronger-credentialed player at this WTA 125-level event in Lisbon. However, Galfi's supplied 20-26 season singles record is sub-.500, which substantially tempers the ranking edge, and no season record is supplied for Romero Gormaz for comparison. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all explicitly unavailable in this evidence package. Both players reached the semifinal, implying comparable current match form. I therefore set only a modest favorite's edge for Galfi.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 9:40 PM PDTGemini · Dalma Galfi · 82.0%
Dalma Galfi holds a massive ranking advantage at #7 in the world compared to Leyre Romero Gormaz at #139. Although Galfi has a losing season record of 20-26, her top-10 status indicates she regularly competes against much higher-tier opposition than Romero Gormaz, making her a strong favorite in this matchup.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 9:40 PM PDTGPT · Dalma Galfi · 81.0%
Dalma Galfi is the clear favorite on the immutable evidence provided. The strongest fact is the ranking gap: Galfi is ranked 7 versus Leyre Romero Gormaz at 139, which is a very large class difference in current ESPN ranking. Galfi also has an available 2026 singles record of 20-26, which is not strong in absolute terms, but it at least shows substantial tour-level match volume; Romero Gormaz's season win-loss record is not supplied, so there is less direct evidence on her current results. Romero Gormaz has a small positive ranking movement (146 to 139), which is mildly favorable, but it is not enough to offset the very large current-rank disadvantage. Because this estimate must use only ranking and season singles record, and because surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable, the forecast should remain strong but not extreme.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 9:40 PM PDTGrok · Dalma Galfi · 78.0%
Dalma Galfi holds rank 7 with a 20-26 singles record while Leyre Romero Gormaz holds rank 139. The large ranking gap supplies the sole quantitative basis for the forecast. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable and explicitly excluded from consideration per the evidence scope.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 9:40 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface-specific form not supplied
- Injury or fitness status not supplied
- Head-to-head history not supplied
- Travel, scheduling, and fatigue not supplied
- Market odds not supplied
- No season win-loss record supplied for Romero Gormaz; Galfi's rank field appears inconsistent with her record
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Leyre Romero Gormaz's season win-loss record is not supplied.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.3 percentage points higher for Dalma Galfi
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
6c70ab427bc0341ae1e29ccb055de6a2b5884f6ce902580cd782513c14878ab0 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
f54f2bfc76e49c1165a814ccbb523a247ef939479c7ddf32e8a2ad7d48cd0762
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: (6) Leyre Romero Gormaz (ESP) bt (7) Dalma Galfi (HUN) 6-2 6-3
Finish your review
Record whether this brief helped, how long the review took, and your next action.
Return to your review →