Tennis · Oct 15, 10:10 PM PDT

Sonay Kartal vs Elina Svitolina

80.8%Elina Svitolina

LOCKED Oct 15, 9:00 PM PDT

4/4 independent models select Elina Svitolina; all four oriented probabilities average 80.75%.

FORECASTElina Svitolina

Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.

RELIABILITY4/4 model reports

17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.

MARKET VALUENot established

A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.

Why the models lean this way

These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.

Gemini: Elina Svitolina is ranked #6, while Sonay Kartal's rank is null.
Grok: Svitolina current rank 6 vs Kartal unranked
Claude: Svitolina ranked No. 6 (up from 7) with 5024 ranking points; Kartal rank not supplied
GPT: Elina Svitolina has the only supplied current ranking: No. 6.

Read all four model reports

Gemini · Elina Svitolina · 82.0%

Elina Svitolina holds a significant advantage in both ranking and season performance. She is ranked #6 in the world with a strong 46-14 record and two titles this season. In contrast, Sonay Kartal is unranked in the provided data and has a 14-7 record with no titles. Given Svitolina's top-tier status and superior win rate, she is the clear favorite.

google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 15, 5:00 PM PDT

Grok · Elina Svitolina · 82.0%

Elina Svitolina holds rank 6 with 5024 points, 46-14 record and 2 titles; Sonay Kartal has null rank and 14-7 record. The ranking and season record gap strongly favors Svitolina in this quarterfinal. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable as not supplied in evidence.

xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 15, 5:00 PM PDT

Claude · Elina Svitolina · 76.0%

Svitolina is ranked No. 6 with 5024 points and a strong 46-14 (76.7%) season record with 2 titles, indicating a deep, high-level campaign. Kartal has no supplied ranking and a modest 14-7 record over far fewer matches, suggesting a lower-tier schedule and less tour-level depth. In a WTA 1000 quarterfinal, the gap in ranking tier and match volume favors Svitolina clearly, though Kartal reaching the quarterfinal shows current form and indoor/hard-court upsets are common. Surface-specific form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are not available in the evidence package, so the estimate rests only on ranking and season win-loss data.

anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 15, 5:00 PM PDT

GPT · Elina Svitolina · 83.0%

Using only the supplied immutable evidence, Elina Svitolina is the clear favorite. She has an explicit current rank of No. 6 and a much larger 2026 singles sample with a 46-14 record, compared with Sonay Kartal's 14-7 record. The ranking gap is substantial, and Svitolina's season volume and win total suggest sustained success against tour-level competition. Kartal's 14-7 record is respectable, but without a supplied rank and with a much smaller sample, the evidence supports her as the underdog. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package, so this estimate relies only on current rank and season win-loss data.

openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 15, 5:00 PM PDT

What remains uncertain

Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
Sonay Kartal's exact ranking is missing from the data.
No surface-specific data available
No head-to-head records supplied
No injury or travel information
No surface-specific or indoor hard-court form supplied
No injury or fitness information
No head-to-head record available

What to watch next

Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.

Open the event and source context →

What changed before the lock

Oct 15, 9:00 PM PDT · final lock0.8 percentage points lower for Elina Svitolina
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
98579a00e69424d40f94e1a7d710c780466f72ab6e864c85541705b74fe7689d
Oct 15, 4:00 AM PDT · house adjudication completedFirst recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
ba0e22cc4d64fc1be4dc4f3fbab6a362deef5c666dcd74fdc45dfa1fde7c8d13

Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.

The saved method comparison

All probabilities below refer to Elina Svitolina. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 15, 9:00 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 15, 8:55 PM PDT.

Current TORK80.8%

Simple average80.8%

Calibrated average83.6%

Kalshi66.0%

Comparison record

Saved Oct 15, 9:00 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.

f2b15965e92d49189d0ef417206abf548136ee418ae661d8c842580af6f7eb72

Inspect the methods and progress →

Available source context

site.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗sports.core.api.espn.com ↗site.api.espn.com ↗

These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.

Recorded outcome: Sonay Kartal (GBR) bt (5) Elina Svitolina (UKR) 6-2 2-6 6-4

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