Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsTennis · Oct 17, 3:30 AM PDT FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Gauthier Onclin vs Harry Wendelken
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Oct 17, 3:00 AM PDT4/4 models favor Gauthier Onclin, but the mean probability (53.75%) is below the house threshold.
19 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Gauthier Onclin has a 1-2 season singles record.
- Grok: Onclin season record 1-2 versus Wendelken 1-3
- Claude: Onclin season record 1-2 vs Wendelken 1-3 (minimal, low-sample edge)
- GPT: Onclin’s supplied season singles record is 1-2 versus Wendelken’s 1-3
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Gauthier Onclin · 52.0%
Both players lack an ATP ranking and have played very few matches this season. Onclin has a marginally better win-loss record (1-2) compared to Wendelken (1-3). With such limited data, Onclin is a very slight favorite. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDTGrok · Gauthier Onclin · 55.0%
Onclin holds a 1-2 singles record while Wendelken holds 1-3; both lack ranking points or prior rank. This marginal edge in season win percentage supplies the sole quantitative basis for a slight favorite designation. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable per evidence scope.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDTClaude · Gauthier Onclin · 55.0%
The evidence package contains only tiny season win-loss samples and no rankings for either player. Onclin is 1-2 (.333) and Wendelken is 1-3 (.250) in ATP-level singles per ESPN, a marginal and statistically weak edge. The match is a qualifying first round in Brussels, Belgium, where Onclin plausibly has home-crowd support given the Belgian venue, but no explicit nationality or home-status fact is supplied. Surface-specific form, injury status, head-to-head history, travel/fatigue, and market odds are all explicitly unavailable in the evidence scope. With both players effectively unranked and records separated by a single match, the honest estimate is close to a coin flip with a very slight lean to Onclin.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDTGPT · Gauthier Onclin · 53.0%
Using only the supplied immutable evidence, the case is very thin: both players have no current rank provided, no ranking points, and only very small season samples. Onclin’s supplied 2026 singles record is 1-2, while Wendelken’s is 1-3. That gives Onclin a slightly better season win rate from the evidence package, but the difference is marginal and based on just one fewer loss. Because current rank is unavailable for both, there is no stronger separation signal. Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable in the evidence package. Therefore the best evidence-bounded estimate is a very slight lean to Gauthier Onclin.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 16, 10:00 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Surface form, injuries, head-to-head, travel, and market odds are unavailable.
- Extremely small sample size of matches for both players makes the win-loss records less reliable.
- Surface-specific form unavailable
- Injuries not supplied
- Head-to-head data absent
- Travel and scheduling factors not provided
- Market odds excluded from evidence
- Surface-specific form not supplied
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
d7ff5744b94588b0c50bc41c2428743278dd048975310653379b9b4f994f5838 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
870064c46265be50f448c03ae8e4e018646907bb2211b341fd150920e4deb96d
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Gauthier Onclin (BEL) bt Harry Wendelken (GBR) 6-3 4-6 6-0
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