Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 4:30 PM PDT FORECASTPending RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Penn State Nittany Lions vs USC Trojans
—No winner forecast available
LOCKED Oct 10, 4:01 PM PDT4/4 models favor USC Trojans, but the mean probability (53.88%) is below the house threshold.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line USC -1.5 implies a slim road-favorite edge (~53-56%)
- Grok: USC 5-1 record and #19 ranking vs Penn State 3-2 and unranked
- Gemini: USC is favored by 1.5 points according to the market line.
- GPT: DraftKings market line favors USC by 1.5 points
Read all four model reports
Claude · USC Trojans · 55.0%
The market line is the most informative supplied signal: DraftKings has USC -1.5, implying a narrow favorite despite the game being played at Penn State's Beaver Stadium. A 1.5-point spread historically converts to roughly a 53-56% win probability for the favorite. Supporting evidence aligns directionally: USC is 5-1 and ranked No. 19, while Penn State is 3-2 and unranked, suggesting USC's superiority is large enough to overcome a meaningful home-field edge. Because the line is so short, I keep the estimate close to a coin flip, nudged slightly toward USC.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGrok · USC Trojans · 53.0%
USC enters with a superior 5-1 record and #19 ranking versus Penn State's 3-2 and unranked status. The DraftKings market line lists USC as a 1.5-point road favorite at Beaver Stadium, supplying the only direct comparative signal. Home-field effects at Penn State are acknowledged but insufficient to override the line and record edge in the supplied facts.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGemini · USC Trojans · 53.5%
USC is a slight 1.5-point favorite despite playing on the road at Beaver Stadium. The Trojans hold a superior 5-1 record and a top-20 ranking, whereas Penn State is 3-2 and unranked. The narrow spread suggests a highly competitive game, but the market gives a slight edge to the visiting Trojans.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTGPT · USC Trojans · 54.0%
Using only the supplied evidence, USC has the stronger overall signal despite being on the road: a better record (5-1 vs 3-2), the only supplied ranking (No. 19 USC vs unranked Penn State in this package), and the market line favoring USC by 1.5 points. Penn State does have home-field advantage at Beaver Stadium, which offsets some of USC’s edge, but the available comparative indicators still lean slightly toward USC. Because the spread is small, this projects as close to a toss-up rather than a decisive advantage.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 12:38 PM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No injury, availability, or depth-chart information supplied
- No advanced efficiency, strength-of-schedule, or scoring-margin data
- Single market provider and a single snapshot; no line movement history
- Records give no context on quality of opponents faced
- Unclear whether any late roster or weather developments are reflected in the line
- Injuries, depth, and advanced stats unavailable per evidence_scope
- Records and rankings not explicitly mapped to teams
- Single market line only; no historical or efficiency corroboration
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
42849a2fab8eedb5bbdd9d4c0a37ba081904515cc439bee1e579790f07d17779 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
2f725ddcb8279939d52f268c353c8602b2012f87ef2e171ac63c5f475722d129
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: Final
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