Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Oct 1, 5:15 PM PDT FORECASTPittsburgh Steelers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established Current TORK56.3% Simple average56.3% Calibrated average56.8% Kalshi59.0% Inspect the methods and progress →
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
56.3%Pittsburgh Steelers
LOCKED Oct 1, 4:45 PM PDT4/4 independent models select Pittsburgh Steelers; all four oriented probabilities average 56.25%.
17 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Gemini: Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point road favorite.
- GPT: Both teams enter at 2-1, so season record is effectively even.
- Claude: Market line PIT -2.5 at Cleveland implies Pittsburgh is the stronger team even accounting for home field
- Grok: Both teams 2-1 entering Week 4
Read all four model reports
Gemini · Pittsburgh Steelers · 56.0%
The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored by 2.5 points on the road against the Cleveland Browns. Both teams enter the game with identical 2-1 records. A 2.5-point spread typically implies a win probability of around 55-58% for the favorite, and the low over/under of 38.5 suggests a tight, low-scoring divisional matchup where points are at a premium.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 29, 8:30 AM PDTGPT · Pittsburgh Steelers · 57.0%
The supplied evidence shows both teams are 2-1, so record does not separate them. The main comparative signal is the market line: Pittsburgh is favored by 2.5 points on the road at Cleveland. A road favorite status is meaningful because it implies the market rates Pittsburgh as the stronger team even after accounting for Cleveland's home field. With no moneyline, quarterback, weather, or meaningful injury detail available, the estimate should stay modest rather than aggressive. Given the small road-favorite spread and otherwise even records, Pittsburgh is the likelier winner but only by a moderate margin.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 29, 8:30 AM PDTClaude · Pittsburgh Steelers · 57.0%
Both teams are 2-1, so records give no edge. The only discriminating evidence is the DraftKings line of PIT -2.5 in Cleveland, meaning Pittsburgh is favored by roughly a field goal despite being on the road — implying a notably stronger neutral-field rating (~5.5 points better after removing ~2-3 points of home-field value). A -2.5 road favorite historically wins about 57-60% of the time. The very low total (38.5) slightly compresses margins and nudges win probability toward the coin flip, so I settle near the low end at 57%. No injury, quarterback, or weather information is provided, which caps confidence.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 29, 8:30 AM PDTGrok · Pittsburgh Steelers · 55.0%
Both teams enter at 2-1. The only comparative signal is the DraftKings market line listing PIT as 2.5-point road favorites. This implies a modest edge for the Steelers despite the away venue. No other differentiating facts (stats, injuries, or weather) are supplied.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 29, 8:30 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No direct moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- No injury reports or player availability details are included.
- Weather conditions for the outdoor game in Cleveland are not provided.
- No moneyline is provided, so the win probability must be inferred from the spread rather than read directly from market pricing.
- Injury information may be incomplete according to the package limitations.
- No quarterback-specific or deeper team-efficiency data is included.
- No weather data is available.
- This forecast is constrained to the supplied snapshot as of 2026-09-29T15:30:31.621Z.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- Probability unchanged
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
b9fd8d7499f5451f4b1e635759e394ea2eaa2f469641830c9c4a123c97cac5be - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
1e20ba8310c042a029ac0bfd737efbec3afa7a3192e4caa84e5bdfd2c0c76dfe
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
All probabilities below refer to Pittsburgh Steelers. Model inputs were fixed at Oct 1, 4:45 PM PDT. The market was observed at Oct 1, 4:40 PM PDT.
Comparison record
Saved Oct 1, 4:49 PM PDT. This is a research comparison; no method has been promoted.
6eb4ca8e39720db1139cfed9a1c15e9c4206969dd6f1213dde1a375537f313dbAvailable source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Cleveland Browns 27
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