Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsCollege Football · Oct 10, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTApp State Mountaineers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
App State Mountaineers vs Old Dominion Monarchs
77.5%App State Mountaineers
LOCKED Oct 10, 9:31 AM PDT4/4 independent models select App State Mountaineers; all four oriented probabilities average 77.5%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Grok: App State 3-1 record vs Old Dominion 1-4 record
- Claude: DraftKings line APP -10 implies roughly 78-81% win probability
- Gemini: App State is favored by 10 points
- GPT: Record advantage: App State 3-1 versus Old Dominion 1-4
Read all four model reports
Grok · App State Mountaineers · 76.0%
App State enters at 3-1 while Old Dominion is 1-4. The market line shows App State favored by 10 points at home in Kidd Brewer Stadium. A double-digit home spread against a team with a losing record supplies a clear comparative signal favoring the Mountaineers. No rankings or advanced metrics are supplied.
xai/grok-4.3 · Oct 10, 8:38 AM PDTClaude · App State Mountaineers · 79.0%
App State is a 10-point home favorite at Kidd Brewer Stadium per DraftKings, which historically converts to roughly a 78-81% win probability for a double-digit home favorite in FBS play. The records corroborate the market signal: App State 3-1 versus Old Dominion 1-4. Neither team is ranked, so no additional separation signal exists. With no injury or efficiency data supplied to adjust the baseline, anchoring to the market-implied figure is the most defensible estimate, and I set it near the center of that band.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Oct 10, 8:38 AM PDTGemini · App State Mountaineers · 78.0%
App State is a 10-point home favorite with a 3-1 record, facing a 1-4 Old Dominion team. The market line strongly suggests App State is the likely winner.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Oct 10, 8:38 AM PDTGPT · App State Mountaineers · 77.0%
App State is the clear favorite on the supplied evidence. The comparative signals all point the same direction: a better record (3-1 vs 1-4), home field at Kidd Brewer Stadium, and a substantial market line of App State -10. A double-digit spread in college football typically implies a meaningful gap in expected win probability, and nothing in the evidence package contradicts that view. With no rankings provided and no injury or efficiency data available, the estimate should stay bounded rather than overly aggressive, but App State is still the most likely winner by a solid margin.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Oct 10, 8:38 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No advanced efficiency or injury data available
- Rankings both null
- Evidence limited to structured scoreboard facts and market line
- No injury reports, QB status, or depth-chart information provided
- No advanced efficiency, SP+/FPI, or strength-of-schedule context
- Strength of opponents behind each record is unknown
- Single sportsbook line with no line-movement history
- No weather or travel detail for an October game in Boone
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 0.5 percentage points higher for App State Mountaineers
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
f0ca9bc7fad6480e895b08ce65b320eab9c74ec8d6e086499ec5dc85f79c9646 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
dccce39a9cbfb226f9418e11535a1deafb443bfec2a8a3cdf16ccf4b4c261a9f
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Final
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