Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 20, 1:25 PM PDT YOUR RESEARCH TASK FORECASTSan Francisco 49ers RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
Miami Dolphins vs San Francisco 49ers
82.0%San Francisco 49ers
LOCKED Sep 20, 12:55 PM PDT4/4 independent models select San Francisco 49ers; all four oriented probabilities average 82%.
Check the evidence
The most important gap and your next source check.
- Read the model reasons and reported limits.
- Inspect available source context; record missing sources.
- Identify what remains unverified and your next action.
18 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings line SF -12.5 marks San Francisco as a heavy home favorite
- Gemini: San Francisco is favored by 12.5 points at home.
- Grok: 49ers hold 1-0 record vs Dolphins 0-1
- GPT: San Francisco is the home team at Levi's Stadium.
Read all four model reports
Claude · San Francisco 49ers · 88.0%
The DraftKings line of SF -12.5 at Levi's Stadium is the strongest evidence available and implies San Francisco is a heavy home favorite. Historically, home favorites of roughly 12 to 13 points win outright close to 85-90 percent of the time. Supporting context aligns: San Francisco is 1-0 and Miami is 0-1 entering Week 2, and Miami must travel cross-country to a 20:25Z (afternoon local) kickoff. The total of 44.5 with a 12.5-point spread implies an expected scoreline near 28.5 to 16, consistent with a comfortable San Francisco margin. No injury or quarterback-status entries are listed for either side, so the estimate rests almost entirely on the market and records; I shade slightly off the raw market-implied figure to respect that uncertainty.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 18, 6:15 AM PDTGemini · San Francisco 49ers · 86.0%
The San Francisco 49ers are heavy 12.5-point home favorites against the Miami Dolphins. In the NFL, a 12.5-point spread typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 85-88%.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 18, 6:15 AM PDTGrok · San Francisco 49ers · 72.0%
San Francisco 49ers enter as 1-0 home team against 0-1 Miami Dolphins and are favored by 12.5 points on the market line. The large spread and home venue at Levi's Stadium indicate a substantial edge for the 49ers despite the early 2026 season week-2 timing and absence of roster or injury context.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 18, 6:15 AM PDTGPT · San Francisco 49ers · 82.0%
San Francisco is the stronger evidence-backed side based on the supplied package: they are at home, enter 1-0 versus Miami at 0-1, and the market spread is a very large SF -12.5. In NFL pricing, a double-digit home spread usually indicates a substantial win expectation gap. The market line is the strongest comparative evidence in the package, and it points clearly toward the 49ers. With no usable quarterback, weather, or meaningful injury detail provided, the estimate should not be pushed to extreme certainty, but San Francisco is still a strong favorite.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 18, 6:15 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- No moneyline prices supplied, so the market-implied probability is derived from the spread alone
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, which may reflect unpublished status reports rather than full health
- No quarterback or depth-chart detail provided for either roster
- Weather data is null for the venue and date
- Only one week of 2026 results informs each team's record, a very small sample
- Evidence is dated 2026-09-18, two days before kickoff, so late status changes are not captured
- No moneyline odds are provided, requiring an estimation based on the point spread.
- No injury reports or starting quarterback information is available.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- First recorded forecast
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
5fcb7835ac0f939a89bfc153e5355d9751fd76a5e12d6bd1c6075ff013c6e70a - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
331d1797f83811951a484724294db527c7ba9c8c6e8ef4bfd55cd1b9033f0c07
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
These links provide event context. They do not verify every claim in a model report.
Recorded outcome: Miami Dolphins 13, San Francisco 49ers 35
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