Estimated outcome probability. A likely winner can still be overpriced.
← Decision briefsNFL · Sep 27, 10:00 AM PDT FORECASTDetroit Lions RELIABILITY4/4 model reports MARKET VALUENot established
New York Jets vs Detroit Lions
74.3%Detroit Lions
LOCKED Sep 27, 9:30 AM PDT4/4 independent models select Detroit Lions; all four oriented probabilities average 74.25%.
16 reported evidence limits. Agreement alone does not establish accuracy.
A probability difference alone does not account for forecast error, fees, spread, or available liquidity.
Why the models lean this way
These are reasons recorded by the models. They are not independently verified facts or measured causes of a probability change.
- Claude: DraftKings market line DET -7 implies roughly a 74-78% win probability for Detroit
- Gemini: Detroit Lions are playing at home at Ford Field.
- Grok: Detroit Lions are 7-point home favorites
- GPT: DraftKings market line lists Detroit -7
Read all four model reports
Claude · Detroit Lions · 75.0%
DraftKings lists Detroit at -7 as the home team, which is the single most informative piece of evidence in the package. A 7-point home favorite historically converts to roughly a 74-78% win probability, so 75% is the calibrated estimate. Both clubs enter at 1-1, so the records provide no differentiating signal and do not push the estimate away from the market-implied figure. The game is indoors at Ford Field with no weather listed, removing environmental variance that might compress the favorite's edge. Injury lists are empty for both sides, which likely reflects incomplete reporting rather than full health, so I stay at the market number rather than adjusting in either direction.
anthropic/claude-opus-5 · Sep 27, 9:25 AM PDTGemini · Detroit Lions · 75.0%
The Detroit Lions are 7-point home favorites against the New York Jets. While both teams enter Week 3 with identical 1-1 records, a 7-point spread in the NFL typically translates to an implied win probability of approximately 75% for the favorite, reflecting Detroit's home-field advantage and perceived team strength.
google/gemini-3.1-pro-preview · Sep 27, 9:25 AM PDTGrok · Detroit Lions · 72.0%
Both teams enter at 1-1. Detroit is the home team at Ford Field and is listed as a 7-point favorite on the DraftKings market line. In the NFL a home favorite of this magnitude against an evenly matched opponent typically converts to a 70-75% implied win probability. No injury or quarterback data is supplied to adjust the baseline.
xai/grok-4.3 · Sep 27, 9:25 AM PDTGPT · Detroit Lions · 75.0%
Detroit is the home team and the only strong comparative evidence in the package is the market spread of Lions -7. In NFL pricing, a 7-point home favorite is typically a clear favorite to win outright, generally implying something around the low-to-mid 70s percent range. Both teams are listed at 1-1, so the records do not separate them. With no usable quarterback, injury, or weather edge provided, the market line is the best evidence-bounded signal, and it points materially toward Detroit.
openai/gpt-5.4 · Sep 27, 9:25 AM PDTWhat remains uncertain
- Injury lists are empty for both teams, likely incomplete rather than confirmed clean bills of health
- No quarterback or depth-chart information provided for either side
- No moneyline odds given, so implied probability is derived from the spread alone
- Weather field is null; indoor venue makes this low-impact but unverified
- Only a single sportsbook line is supplied, with no line-movement or consensus context
- Records are 2-game samples with no point differential or opponent-quality detail
- No direct moneyline odds are provided, requiring the win probability to be estimated from the point spread.
- No injury reports or starting quarterback details are available in the provided evidence.
What to watch next
Official result recorded. Review the original forecast and sources below.
Open the event and source context →What changed before the lock
- 5.5 percentage points lower for Detroit Lions
The pre-event probability state was locked atomically and is immutable.
Record hash
ee0a5fdb87273263b4e77bb263ba21f4efcca2a5935f94ec7bf14a71ae1ae255 - First recorded forecast
First prospective probability state captured for this source and competition.
Record hash
379d8a54c29a12850eb43e423aadb3b9dba589361a6cd7ad96a1ae3794cd8af4
Reasons are shown as they were recorded. The ledger does not establish that a specific fact caused a probability change.
The saved method comparison
This event has no eligible record in the new comparison cohort. Historical or late forecasts are not filled in after the event.
Inspect the methods and progress →Available source context
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Recorded outcome: New York Jets 24, Detroit Lions 31
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